arXiv:2610.10912v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Shortcut learning is a prevalent issue in robot learning. The limited diversity of robot demonstration datasets can mislead policies into exploiting spurious correlations between tasks and irrelevant features, such as viewpoint or background. Collecting sufficiently diverse robot demonstrations is costly and inefficient, motivating algorithmic alternatives. We focus on vision-language-action (VLA) models and discover that different vision-language model backbones exhibit substantially different levels of susceptibility to visual shortcut learning. We find that model behavior correlates with our proposed representation-level metric, action margin, which requires no policy rollouts. Visual shortcuts consistently enter action representations in early layers, with models differing in the extent to which later layers correct them by incorporating language information. To boost models' attention to language, we introduce task scrubbing, a new domain-adversarial training method that decreases models' likelihood of using visual shortcuts and improves VLAs' generalization. Experiments in both simulation and the real world across multiple VLAs and visual cues show that task scrubbing improves out-of-distribution robustness and often eliminates visual shortcut learning.
arXiv:2610.10909v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Membership inference attacks (MIAs) threaten the privacy of machine learning (ML) training data by determining whether a sample was used to train a target model. Existing MIAs rely on model outputs, ranging from prediction probabilities to predicted labels, an assumption that can be restrictive for on-device ML systems with limited or inaccessible outputs. However, suppressing model outputs does not eliminate the data-dependent computations that produce them, which may remain observable through physical side channels. We present PSCMIA, a power side-channel membership inference attack against embedded ML models that can infer membership directly from power traces without requiring prediction probabilities or even the predicted labels. We evaluate PSCMIA across multiple datasets (MNIST, FMNIST, CIFAR10, CINIC10), fully connected (FC) and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures, and two embedded platforms (STM32F3, XMEGA). PSCMIA achieves ROC-AUC values of up to 0.907 on FC models. For CNN models, the ROC-AUC gap between PSCMIA and probability vector-based shadow MIA ranges from 0.006 to 0.116. Across the FC and CNN evaluations, PSCMIA outperforms label-only MIA in 11 of 16 model-dataset-hardware configurations, demonstrating that physical execution can expose membership information even when conventional model outputs are unavailable through unintended power side-channel leakage.
arXiv:2610.10870v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are the standard tool for computing expectations under complex probability distributions. Control variates reduce the variance of the resulting estimates, but a good control variate requires solving the Poisson equation of the sampler, which rarely admits a closed-form solution. Exact solutions are available when the sampler's kernel has a known spectral decomposition on a simple reference density. In our work, we extend these solutions to general targets through a learned change of variables. A bijection, such as a normalizing flow, is trained so that the target becomes close to the reference in a latent space, and we show that Markov kernels and their Poisson solutions are transformed by any bijection. Running such samplers in the latent space then yields explicit control variates, and the estimator is consistent under mild tail conditions on the map and target. Importance sampling (IS) from the flow is the limiting case of the same construction and the control variates apply to it as well. Experiments on synthetic targets and real posteriors compare the procedure against state-of-the-art samplers and control variates.
arXiv:2610.10859v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Text-to-image diffusion models are increasingly distilled into few-step variants and being deployed to enable fast inference. However, their ability to generate harmful or undesired content poses significant safety risks. Data-driven unlearning methods suppress targeted generations by fine-tuning model weights using specialized unlearning objectives. Crucially, these objectives implicitly rely on multi-step denoising dynamics, an assumption that breaks down for few-step distilled (FSD) models, resulting in ineffective forgetting. Furthermore, performing unlearning on the non-distilled base model and subsequently re-distilling it to obtain an unlearned FSD model incurs substantial computational and time overhead, making it impractical in many settings. Hence, we address this limitation with a preference-driven unlearning framework that revisits Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) for diffusion models. We show that standard DPO and its unlearning derivatives, formulated around noise-prediction error, transfer poorly to FSD models due to their altered generation dynamics. To overcome this, we introduce a modified preference optimization formulation explicitly aligned with the few-step generation properties, enabling direct concept removal in FSD models while preserving few-step efficiency and maintaining strong retention of desirable (non-targeted) capabilities. We evaluate our framework primarily on identity and NSFW (nudity) removal tasks and also extend our method to object-level unlearning. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent and effective forgetting, and strong retention performance, establishing our method as a practical and principled solution for unlearning in FSD models.
arXiv:2610.10858v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Analog/RF circuits remain the critical interface between digital computation and the physical world, and emerging standards from Wi-Fi 7 to 6G place stringent demands on them, yet analog/RF design remains one of the most labor-intensive steps in chip development. We present RFChipAgent, a first-of-its-kind multi-agent flow of large language model (LLM) agents for end-to-end analog/RF circuit design automation, in which AI agents collaboratively orchestrate the complete design flow under human supervision. RFChipAgent is built around four technical pillars. First, a multimodal retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) subsystem with private per-document FAISS indexing extracts design knowledge from existing engineering documentation. Second, a topology agent drives topology selection, and a schematic and testbench agent automates circuit and testbench assembly. Third, a closed-loop hybrid circuit-sizing engine combines Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and CMA-ES optimization, evaluating every candidate in a simulator-in-the-loop framework. Fourth, a trust-scored simulation database accumulates verified performance data and builds an adaptive optimization model that informs subsequent trials. We validate RFChipAgent on a family of GF22FDSOI 60 GHz wideband mm-wave low-noise amplifier (LNA) topologies, demonstrating automated topology generation, specification-driven design-space exploration, and simulator-guided optimization. Experimental results show substantial reductions in design effort while maintaining signoff-quality verification. This work establishes a foundation for LLM-driven multi-agent electronic design automation (EDA) for analog/RF circuits.
arXiv:2610.10829v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees, but the label verification required for calibration can be expensive. We develop a partial verification method that returns exactly the same prediction sets as complete verification. We characterize calibration certificates, the verified information sufficient to determine the conformal threshold, and design a procedure that coordinates verification across calibration examples. For finite thresholds at high coverage, its verification cost is less than twice the minimum certificate cost when candidates are checked in order. Across retrieval, mathematical solutions, and configuration evaluation, it reduces verification cost by 15-82% compared with verifying calibration examples one at a time, while producing identical prediction sets.
arXiv:2610.10805v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As AI systems increasingly interact with people and make decisions about them, understanding human interpretations becomes an important part of developing human-centered AI. Conventional machine learning and AI systems are largely developed under the assumption that a single definitive ground truth exists, with variability in human annotations often resolved through aggregation or treated as noise. However, for many human-centered tasks, human interpretation is inherently ambiguous, and multiple interpretations of the same input may be simultaneously reasonable and valid. Reducing such ambiguity to a single target risks overlooking meaningful information about the diversity of human perception, judgment, and experience. In this position paper, we call for a shift towards modeling the interpretation space of plausible human judgments, while distinguishing meaningful ambiguity from annotation noise. We argue that this perspective should guide how AI systems are represented, learned, evaluated, deployed, and governed, supporting more human-centered AI that better reflects the diversity of human interpretation.
arXiv:2610.10793v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) protects decisions against distributional uncertainty by optimizing over an ambiguity set, but poorly aligned set geometry can require large radii and yield overly conservative decisions. We introduce diagnostic-transport DRO (DT-DRO), which uses held-out calibration data to adapt the ambiguity-set geometry to observed predictive errors. DT-DRO uses the conditional probability integral transform cumulative distribution function to diagnose systematic probability misallocation and translates this information into an outcome-level transport that jointly adjusts the ambiguity-set center and ground cost. The resulting formulation admits a computationally tractable dual reformulation. Theoretically, we derive valid ambiguity radii and decision-risk guarantees that tighten as estimation and approximation errors vanish, and show that DT-DRO can eliminate the nonvanishing robustness floor caused by model misspecification. Synthetic experiments and a power-outage application demonstrate improved decision quality, particularly under structural and tail misspecification.
arXiv:2610.10786v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Planning is increasingly important for long-horizon agents, where successful execution requires coordinating subgoals, tool use, and intermediate outcomes over many steps. Yet assumptions made during planning may be invalidated by the environment, tools may return unexpected results, or actions may fail. Effective agents must therefore not only generate plans, but also revise them. Such revisions often affect only part of a plan, leaving the preceding and subsequent structure intact. Rather than regenerate the entire plan and risk unnecessary changes, repair can regenerate the affected region conditioned on the preserved prefix and suffix. We introduce Plan-and-Patch, a plan-and-act framework in which a diffusion language model (dLLM) generates a structured, program-like plan through parallel unmasking and repairs it by filling in selected regions while keeping the surrounding steps fixed. We compare DreamReasoner-8B and Qwen3-8B as diffusion and autoregressive (AR) planners. On Natural Plan without task-specific training, diffusion (53.7%) achieves nearly twice the plan repair success rate of AR (27.0%). After task-specific training on agentic benchmarks, ALFWorld and TextCraft, the planners achieve similar observed success in plan generation, while diffusion reduces mean plan-generation latency by 39-46% relative to AR. Our results show that Plan-and-Patch provides a framework for faster plan generation and effective plan repair in long-horizon agents.
arXiv:2610.10768v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The global challenge of climate change has driven significant steps to reduce CO2 emissions, guided by international agreements like the Paris Agreement of 2015. Acting too slowly could result in future losses and reputational damage, while moving too quickly could jeopardize shareholder value due to the marginal profitability or potential losses due to technology immaturity of many renewable projects. To navigate this complex transition, energy companies must adopt Sequential Decision Making (SDM) strategies to maximize value creation from decision flexibility under uncertainties. To support this, we developed a custom simulation environment to model the dynamic energy landscape up to 2050. Building on this, we designed a multi-criteria SDM framework that explores various decision strategies related to different portfolios for allocating funds across three sectors: oil & gas, renewables, and CO2 reduction. It aims to maximize value during the transition while accounting for uncertainties in productions, energy prices, and costs. This framework has three objectives: maximizing profit, minimizing CO2 social costs, and enhancing competitive advantage in the renewable energy sector. This research evaluates the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to identify optimal investment policies within the defined SDM framework. The agent's sequential decisions shape a virtual dynamic environment by influencing key variables such as oil and gas production, renewable energy output, CO2 emissions, and revenues. Through repeated interaction, the RL algorithm explores the state space and learns an optimal policy under uncertainty. We benchmark the RL strategy against a set of manually defined baseline policies and find it consistently outperforms them in adaptability and long-term value creation.
arXiv:2610.10766v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Lack of effective authentication has resulted in numerous security and privacy breaches, including unauthorized access to protected information, identity theft, and fraud. One approach to mitigating such attacks is Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA), in which users must provide multiple pieces of information for authentication. Some secondary authentication factors include SMS text verification codes, biometrics, and tokens. Each contains at least one notable flaw: SMS is notoriously insecure; biometrics rely upon access to sensitive personal data; and tokens require dependence on third-party providers (e.g. OAuth providers). This work explores CPU-Auth, a novel authentication mechanism based on unique variations in the physical characteristics of the CPU of a computing device. By measuring the behavior of the Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS) governor remotely from within a browser, unique properties of the CPU can be leveraged to establish a hardware-based device fingerprint for use in CPU-Auth. The performance of CPU-Auth is evaluated on over 50,000 data traces using distance-based and deep learning methods. CPU-Auth is part of a larger research project, and the results provided in this report reflect only the contributions made to the project by members of this group.
arXiv:2610.10758v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Enterprise conversation analytics asks many questions of millions of interactions. Each question can require reconstructing what people mean and identifying which information matters, repeating costly interpretive work across the same transcripts. We propose a simple principle: clarify the text, then focus the reader. Statement normalization transforms dialogue into short, speaker-attributed statements with source references and semantic tags. The statements make meaning more explicit; the tags support selecting evidence for a particular question. Downstream models can use the full representation or a relevant subset, depending on what helps them make the decision. In an offer-suppression task on customer-service calls, normalization improves a supervised classifier without selection, while weaker prompted readers benefit from both normalization and selection. A small model can learn the normalization contract, while lightweight encoders handle tagging and downstream decisions. Sharing this preparation across questions supports an inference pipeline built entirely from small models, making analytics over millions of conversations substantially less expensive.
arXiv:2610.10697v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurately simulating chaotic quantum many-body dynamics remains a major computational challenge for classical methods, due to the rapid buildup and spatial spreading of entanglement during the evolution. This raises the question of whether machine learning can provide an effective alternative for predicting quantum dynamics. We address this question by formulating quantum dynamics as a time-series forecasting problem, using a few-qubit PXP chain, realizable with Rydberg-atom arrays, as a benchmark. By varying the initial state, the system spans dynamical regimes ranging from ergodic behavior to quantum many-body scarring, providing a controlled setting for testing forecasting models across qualitatively different dynamics. We compare two contrasting architectures: an expressive nonlinear Transformer and DLinear, a simple linear forecasting model. The Transformer accurately predicts dynamics in the more ergodic regime, but its performance progressively deteriorates as the initial state approaches the scarred limit. In contrast, DLinear remains accurate across the entire family of initial states, with its main deviations consisting of small high-frequency oscillations that have little effect on the overall prediction error. Remarkably, these results show that observables generated by complex quantum many-body dynamics can be forecast with high accuracy through a simple linear mapping from past to future observations. This reveals that the complexity of the underlying quantum evolution need not translate into an equally complex forecasting problem.
arXiv:2610.10663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bioacoustics and ethology encompass a wide range of audio understanding tasks, many of which stand to benefit from recent advances in large audio-language models. However, progress in the field has so far been assessed on a narrow set of tasks, primarily centered on label-centric biological category recognition, such as species and call-type classification. In this work, we introduce BEANS-Next, a benchmark grounded in a taxonomy of bioacoustics tasks spanning acoustic perception, biological category recognition, scene understanding, and in-context learning. Using BEANS-Next, we show that existing models exhibit limited performance beyond the task families emphasized by existing evaluations, constraining their usefulness for broader bioacoustic applications. To support progress on this broader task space, we also introduce ROOTS, a large-scale training resource built from expanded curated real-world data and previously underused behavioral and acoustic metadata, supplemented by audio-derived information and scalable synthetic generation where labeling is insufficient. We demonstrate that training on this dataset yields substantial progress across all task groups of BEANS-Next, moving audio-language models closer to their potential as general-purpose assistants for bioacoustics and ethology. To accelerate progress in the field, we open-source our benchmark, dataset, and data pipelines.
arXiv:2610.10642v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper studies the construction of an explanatory space for a weighted naive Bayes classifier from the supervised representation induced by the model. We start from the classical supervised distance based on conditional log-likelihoods and introduce a discriminative reformulation based on log-odds, which is more directly related to the classification decision. We then show that this representation induces a distance that exactly coincides with the $\ell_1$ distance between vectors of analytical Shapley values, thereby providing a formal explanatory interpretation of the geometry induced by the model. Finally, we empirically compare several supervised distances derived from these representations using a $k$-nearest neighbors classifier. This work highlights a close link between supervised distance, local explanation, and predictive behavior, from a primarily methodological perspective.
arXiv:2610.10625v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) provide a parameter efficient approach to scaling model capabilities through repeated use of shared parameters across recurrent steps. Since each recurrent depth can be read out independently, a single LoopLM exposes a broader output space across inference depths, raising an important question: whether safety is preserved throughout recurrent computation. Prior evaluations suggest that deeper recurrence can improve safety on harmful queries, but robustness under jailbreak attacks remains unclear. We therefore conduct a comprehensive safety evaluation of LoopLMs under jailbreak attacks targeting different recurrent depths. We find that attack success can increase at deeper inference depths, the same query can elicit different safety behaviors across depths, and attacks constructed against one depth can transfer to others. Moreover, SFT and preference alignment do not eliminate these safety gaps, motivating an alignment method designed for LoopLMs. We introduce SafeBridge, which combines lightweight depth specific control of shared recurrent layers, selective state bridging, and joint safety supervision across recurrent depths. Across model scales, multiple attack methods, and safety benchmarks, SafeBridge substantially reduces attack success for both matched-depth and cross-depth attacks. It also improves general utility over the vanilla models while maintaining comparable over-refusal behavior. Our results show that the safety of a LoopLM cannot be inferred from a single recurrent depth, motivating safety alignment across recurrent computation. Our code and model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.
arXiv:2610.10617v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In post-deployment time, inputs to deep learning models may or may not be adversarially patched. Patch robustness certification on such inputs within a patch bound can verify their label benignity and should retain high prediction accuracy. However, existing smoothing-based and masking-based recovery defenders cannot achieve both simultaneously: they degrade the prediction accuracy much and cannot verify the benignity of the returned label of an adversarially patched input, respectively. We propose MRCert, the first masking-based certified recovery defender that shows the feasibility of achieving both. Unlike all existing works to apply a common condition across both types of input (benign and adversarially patched samples) for certification, MRCert infers type-specific necessary properties of deep learning models for both types in post-deployment time and formally relates them to verify the label benignity through a novel type-oriented design of label recovery and certification function pair. Without incurring the degradation in clean accuracy caused by smoothing, experimental results confirm that MRCert achieves 35.1\% adversarial certified accuracy on ImageNet at patch size 16 pixels, whereas the SOTA PatchCURE fails completely.
arXiv:2610.10615v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Choosing which information to observe is central to prediction under limited observation budgets. We study JevForest, a feature acquisition policy that aggregates path-dependent proposals from bootstrapped trees, weights them by global training information gain, and predicts from the acquired values with a shared masked classifier. An online implementation queries Jev for semantic answers selected by this policy. On small balanced held-out samples, four-question forest acquisition achieves accuracy $0.729$ on AG News ($n=48$), compared with $0.667$ for a static gain ranking and $0.583$ for random ordering. On TREC ($n=24$), the ordering reverses: forest accuracy is $0.667$, compared with $0.750$ and $0.833$. Asking all eight questions in one batch yields higher accuracy at lower measured cost and latency than four sequential forest queries; direct Jev classification matches the batch accuracy while costing less. Offline MiniBooNE experiments yield accuracy $0.845\pm0.010$ at ten features and $0.885\pm0.008$ at forty features over three jointly varying data and forest seeds (mean $\pm$ sample standard deviation). A companion Newton boosting implementation provides preliminary full-feature synthetic results. These exploratory findings establish a working Jev acquisition workflow but do not support a general advantage for path voting: its value depends on the task, predictor, and the distinction between question budgets and actual query costs.
arXiv:2610.10600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Steinke and Zakynthinou(2020) introduces the Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) framework of analyzing the information complexity of learning algorithms based on algorithm-dependent information-theoretic quantities. We study one of these quantities, the evaluated Conditional Mutual Information (eCMI). It has been an interesting question whether the optimal PAC guarantee for VC classes can be recovered from the algorithm-dependent analyses via CMI. And we show that it is possible to recover this guarantee by constructing a learning algorithm whose eCMI is of order O(d) in the realizable case, where d is the VC-dimension of the concept class. Specially, our algorithm is a randomized Majority-of-5 base learners with optimal in-expectation generalization guarantee.
arXiv:2610.10548v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spaced repetition software schedules reviews with a memory model fit to review logs. Accuracy on a test set is not sufficient evidence of quality since available data are produced by existing schedulers, and new solutions must extrapolate beyond them. A model also needs a simple mechanistic interpretation. We present SBD, a model that is more interpretable and 80% smaller than the current state of the art at nearly the same accuracy.
arXiv:2610.12445v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent incidents have highlighted the challenge of monitoring LLM agents and the danger of models deceiving people. We show that white-box deception detection via probes can be scaled up to frontier monitoring settings by collecting the largest deception dataset to date for training probes and introducing a novel probe architecture which can aggregate information across many layers and tokens. Our probes achieve 98.8% AUC in SHADE-Arena, surpassing an Opus 5.5 text-monitoring baseline, and show improved efficacy as the underlying model is scaled up. To push our probes to their limit, we test them on several cases where deception cannot be determined from the context alone. In these cases, which we refer to as introspective deception, the ground truth can only be determined through careful elicitation or thorough knowledge of a model's training data. In one such evaluation, we show that probes can distinguish transcripts containing a model's true hidden goal from other goals with an AUC of up to 99.7%. Our probes also readily detect deception on prominent open-weight models which lie about politically sensitive topics, and about their beliefs when put under pressure. We release our training dataset, dubbed FIBS, to help drive frontier deployment of effective probes, and encourage the community to expand upon it with further examples of deception and sabotage.
arXiv:2610.12444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantizing AdamW's optimizer states reduces persistent storage, but quantization errors propagate through the moment recurrences and perturb subsequent adaptive updates. We redesign 4-bit optimizer-state quantization for AdamW from the perspective of \emph{rounding space}: the coordinate in which a quantizer chooses between adjacent reconstruction levels. For the second moment, a local analysis of the quantization cell adjacent to zero shows that small mean state error need not imply small mean preconditioner error at the next step. A one-dimensional quadratic construction further shows qualitatively different optimization dynamics under state-space and preconditioner-space rounding. These results motivate Zero-Inclusive Preconditioner-space Stochastic Rounding (\textbf{ZIP-SR}), which retains zero in the second-moment codebook and computes stochastic-rounding probabilities in preconditioner space. As a complementary route, Zero-Excluding EDEN calibration (\textbf{ZE-EDEN}) uses a zero-excluding second-moment codebook and rescales the quantized second-moment block to mitigate the preconditioner distortion caused by the positive quantization floor. Both configurations use 4-bit NormalFloat (NF4) for the first moment, with targeted stochastic rounding of the LM-head first moment during the final 10\% of training. Across GPT- and Llama-style pretraining experiments ranging from \textbf{130M} to \textbf{2.7B} parameters, both methods reduce TorchAO 4-bit AdamW's mean validation-loss gap to 32-bit AdamW at every evaluated model size, with the largest reported gap reduction reaching \textbf{70\%}. In full-parameter supervised fine-tuning, both recipes achieve lower validation loss than TorchAO while remaining close to 32-bit AdamW on downstream tasks.
arXiv:2610.12420v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning in safety-critical domains requires maximizing task performance while strictly adhering to safety constraints. Existing safe reinforcement learning paradigms typically force a trade-off: they either require a priori knowledge to provide strict safety guarantees (e.g., safety filters), or they enable joint learning but only satisfy safety constraints on average. In this work, we propose a novel Bellman operator that unifies performance and safety objectives into a joint value function. We show that temporal difference learning with the joint Bellman operator converges under a two-timescale stochastic approximation framework. On the fast timescale, the safety value of the learning joint policy is estimated, while the joint value is estimated on the slow timescale. Convergence is ensured by formulating the limiting dynamics as an occupation-averaged differential inclusion, and showing that it asymptotically converges to a set of limiting optimal safety-constrained task value functions. Theoretically, once converged, the resulting optimal policy maximizes task return while maintaining safety at all times. Empirical evaluations on continuous control tasks with neural approximations demonstrate stable convergence with near-zero safety violations at test time.
arXiv:2610.12397v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study whether persistent out-of-distribution (OOD) degradation can be predicted before it is directly observed using only source-side training dynamics. In a controlled shortcut-learning setting, a simple logistic regression predictor develops a clear prospective signal, while training time alone does not. Temporal summaries of the source-side quantities are substantially more informative than their current values. When transferred without additional training from a CNN to an MLP, confidence and entropy dynamics retain substantial predictive information. These results provide a proof of principle that source-side training dynamics can contain an early warning signal for future OOD failure.
arXiv:2610.12390v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Industrial risk-control systems typically rely on structured-data models for efficient prediction, yet substantial valuable information remains embedded in unstructured long text. Extracting this information through manual feature engineering is labor-intensive, while requiring a large language model (LLM) to process every real-time input may not meet practical deployment requirements. To address this challenge, we propose LLM-BlockFE, an LLM-guided offline feature construction framework that converts long text into executable feature programs, thereby avoiding LLM calls during online inference. LLM-BlockFE constructs feature programs by incrementally appending immutable code blocks and evaluates candidate features using a downstream model. To address the tendency of conventional greedy search to become trapped in suboptimal solutions, our method introduces a block-level rollback mechanism based on depth-calibrated credit allocation and advances multiple independent search trajectories in an interleaved manner, reducing redundant exploration by sharing fixed descriptions of each trajectory's exploration direction. After the search, the resulting programs are frozen and deployed to extract structured features for downstream prediction models. Across two public and two private datasets, LLM-BlockFE achieves absolute AUC improvements of 0.0069 to 0.0358 over the strongest baseline on each dataset in the full-dataset comparison. Post-launch monitoring across five deployed financial risk-control applications shows absolute KS improvements of 0.02 to 1.56 percentage points over the existing manually designed strategy.
arXiv:2610.12379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real decisions are made under incomplete information. If we observe only some of the random variables we need, we can predict the others. The \textbf{conditional marginals} over the missing variables are the key ingredient for computing Bayes risk and Value of Information (VOI), the expected gain from acquiring one more observation before deciding. We present the Marformer, a Transformer trained to directly predict conditional marginals given any set of observed values. Like BERT, which is trained to predict missing words from context, the Marformer constructs a hidden-vector representation for each distribution $p(X_i)$ and iteratively refines it through attention to other distributions $p(X_j)$. Unlike generative approaches, the Marformer does not model the full joint distribution, requires no domain knowledge of the data-generating process, and makes all predictions in a single forward pass. We evaluate across three synthetic domains with missing data---Bayesian networks, discretized multivariate Gaussians, and structured annotation data. The Marformer can match or outperform classical missing-data methods, even when those methods are given the true model family and prior that generated the synthetic data. We also evaluate on a real annotation dataset, where the Marformer outperforms the evaluated baselines at the largest training size. In both cases, the Marformer is substantially faster than the evaluated generative baselines.