arXiv:2610.12806v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study byte-level autoregressive language models whose hidden state is a small quantum register, whose transitions are learned token-conditioned quantum channels, and whose next-byte probabilities come directly from Born-rule measurements without a learned classical vocabulary projection or softmax. In the fixed-width recurrent setting, unitary dynamics cannot contract or reset stored distinctions; experimentally, unitary recurrence loses to its retrained one-token control in every tested variant. Introducing learned dissipation, then token-conditioned dissipative gating, yields useful memory beyond one token. The gated model improves test negative log-likelihood by 0.20 +/- 0.03 nats/byte over retrained parameter-matched one-token controls at context length 12, and by 0.29-0.33 at longer contexts, but never beats retrained two-token controls. A key-value recall benchmark shows a width-dependent threshold: one stored pair meets the pre-registered accuracy bar at 4-5 memory qubits, two pairs at 6-7, and three pairs remain unsolved. This is consistent with, but does not establish, a capacity explanation for the short effective memory horizon. As a secondary result, one-qubit models reach lower stationary memory entropy than a heuristically optimized classical predictive frontier at matched error in 9/9 seeds. On IBM Heron hardware, computational-basis memory-register distributions show signal against a uniform null in 12/12 circuits across prefixes of up to 12 tokens, next-bit probabilities pass pre-registered accuracy bars at four-token prefixes, and bytes are generated autoregressively by sampling physically measured bit probabilities. The tested models are classically simulable and substantially worse than classical n-gram baselines. We claim no computational quantum advantage.
arXiv:2610.12801v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Approximating the effective anisotropic hyperelastic response of a representative volume element (RVE) requires constitutive expressiveness, mechanical consistency, and computational efficiency. This work develops a polyconvex physics-augmented neural network (PANN) construction based on paired directional features whose orientations, stretch powers, and determinant exponents adapt to the RVE response. The features are composed with convex, componentwise nondecreasing cores, realized as an input-convex neural network (ICNN) or an input-convex Kolmogorov-Arnold network (ICKAN). The complete energies satisfy objectivity, an exactly stress-free reference, two-dimensional polyconvexity, and prescribed growth conditions by construction, and nonnegative energy is certified separately for the selected models. On a multicavity and a single-cavity periodic cell, these energies are compared with an Unconstrained energy, trained identically without the curvature and growth constraints, and with three hyperreduced projection-based reduced-order models (HPROMs), which serve as physics-based references. On the first cell, learning the features lowers the stress error sevenfold, and six features suffice on both. The constrained energies remain below one percent in stress error and in the displacement error of a tensile-coupon FE$^2$ application with a full-order reference, whereas the Unconstrained energy and the HPROMs are more accurate inside the data. Beyond the data, however, the Unconstrained energy loses rank-one convexity, and under confined compression it stops below half of the 500 MPa that the constrained energies reach. These results quantify what the guarantees cost in accuracy and what they secure beyond the data.
arXiv:2610.12775v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The two main traditional player statistics used in soccer are goals scored and assists, with an assist credited when a player's pass immediately leads to a teammate scoring. Attributing credit solely to the player who makes the final pass before a goal fails to account for the contributions of multiple players in the buildup to the goal. Consequently, traditional statistics provide only a limited view of player involvement. In this paper, we use multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) to model timestamped sequences of passes and shots, which form continuous-time networks. MHPs provide a branching mechanism where an event (a pass or shot) can be generated as a child of a previous event, which allows us to quantify each pass's contribution to a subsequent pass or shot. This approach distributes credit across multiple passes within an attacking sequence, making it applicable across a wide range of situations. Building on this framework, we propose expected goal involvements (xGI), a metric that measures a player's involvement in creating goal scoring opportunities based on their passes. This metric identifies players who play key roles in creating goal scoring opportunities even if they do not make the final pass, offering a more comprehensive measure of attacking involvement and player performance.
arXiv:2610.12747v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ego-trajectory prediction in urban roadway work zones remains an underexplored topic in autonomous-driving research, with limited dedicated data and systematic evaluation. Roadway work zones involve temporary changes in the lane layouts and connectivity of the roads, complicating interactions with surrounding vehicles and workers. These changes make future vehicle trajectories difficult to predict. To address these challenges, we collect WZDrive-Data, a multimodal dataset comprising 1,183 work-zone driving segments from 33 drivers, using a human-in-the-loop driving simulator with prerecorded worker animations and VR-controlled workers. Driver control and gaze signals are recorded from human participants, while vehicle trajectories and scene information are obtained from the simulator. Our proposed multimodal ego-trajectory predictor, WZDrive, achieves a mean minADE (K=6) of 1.09 m and minFDE (K=6) of 2.12 m. Compared with the best-performing state-of-the-art baseline for each metric in our benchmark, WZDrive reduces minADE (K=6) by 7.18% and minFDE (K=6) by 13.18%. This research addresses a gap in autonomous-driving research on urban work zones by combining human-in-the-loop data collection with multimodal learning from human driving signals and in the context of work zones.
arXiv:2610.12740v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the two-sample estimation of the powered Sliced Wasserstein functional under projected $r$-th moment assumptions. Let $N=n\wedge m$, where $n$ and $m$ are two sample sizes. We establish the minimax rates in the noncritical regimes. When $p 2p$ it is of order $N^{-1/2}$. In both cases, the natural plug-in estimator is minimax rate-optimal. At the endpoint $r=p$, the minimax risk is bounded away from zero, so uniformly consistent estimation is impossible. At the critical order $r=2p$, we obtain the exact worst-case rate of the plug-in estimator and a lower bound for the minimax risk, leaving a logarithmic gap between the lower and upper bounds. The exact minimax rate in this critical case remains open.
arXiv:2610.12718v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models are stochastic by nature. Repeated executions under the same experimental conditions may produce different responses. We propose a framework that can be applied across the model lifecycle, from task design to residual behavior and continuous monitoring. The method consists of building an empirical response distribution estimated through Monte Carlo simulation. Semantic interventions are introduced to study how these distributions change. We illustrate the framework with two different tasks, borrower classification and music album recommendation, and quantify the resulting distributional changes. The framework is linked to model risk management and governance by measuring robustness and control effectiveness, and characterizing residual behavior. Since it relies only on observed responses, it can also be applied to black-box models accessed through commercial APIs.
arXiv:2610.12704v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated learning allows dispersed oilfield sites to train a shared intrusion detector without pooling network traffic, yet its aggregation step forces a choice between privacy and robustness. Byzantine-robust rules must read each update in the clear, whereas secure aggregation hides updates from the checks that detect poisoning. We present PVBRF-ID, a two-server protocol in which sites secret-share their updates and the servers jointly test each update's norm and its cosine similarity to a reference computed on a small clean root set, revealing one accept bit per site. Commitments, Merkle roots and a homomorphic audit make the inclusion of accepted updates publicly verifiable. On a 15-class Edge-IIoTset task with ten sites holding differently distributed data and ten random seeds, PVBRF-ID matched FedAvg on clean data (macro-F1 0.708 vs. 0.706) and withstood sign-flip attacks (0.696 vs. 0.091). Against an adaptive attacker controlling 30% of sites, PVBRF-ID with secure clipping reached 0.641, whereas FedAvg fell to 0.046; plaintext multi-Krum remained higher by 0.052. An update-inference attacker recovered each site's class mix from plaintext updates (Spearman correlation 0.81) but not from one server's view. Backdoors passed the filter, and noise-based mitigation gave only heuristic protection. The implementation uses Python 3.13, NumPy 2.3, 30 rounds and 10 seeds.
arXiv:2610.12703v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-risk applications of deep learning require precise characterization of model decision-making. We conduct a systematic explainability evaluation across Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Vision Transformers (ViTs), and Vision Mamba (ViM). Unlike predominantly qualitative studies, we quantify the alignment between model attention and human visual perception using eye-tracking ground truth. We formalize this comparison via a standardized normalization pipeline mapping post-hoc attribution maps and gaze heatmaps onto spatial probability distributions. Alignment is evaluated across fine-grained classification, medical imaging, and emotion recognition using architecture-specific XAI methods. We measure fidelity using Jensen-Shannon similarity, Chi-square similarity, and Pearson correlation, three complementary estimators capturing support overlap, mass discrepancy, and structural co-variation. Our results reveal distinct attention dynamics: CNNs tend to exhibit a more global focus, with spatially more diffuse saliency maps that correlate well with human perception in general contexts, while ViTs demonstrate fine-grained, patch-level attention, often focused on discriminative microfeatures. The Mamba architecture shows biased behavior: it achieves strong explainability in medical tasks but exhibits divergent intensity distributions in natural images; our analytical characterization of the metrics makes this dissociation explicit, since near-unit support overlap is attained simultaneously with a vanishing linear correlation. We further analyze the effect of backbone freezing and ensemble strategies on model interpretability. The results highlight how architectural and training choices influence the alignment between model saliency and human visual attention.
arXiv:2610.12697v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper studies an open network design problem of constructing graph topologies with maximum algebraic connectivity under fixed numbers of vertices and edges. A density-dependent approach is proposed that decomposes the design task into two stages: a high-quality, low-cost structural backbone construction and a reinforcement learning completion stage. The method selects the backbone based on density, using complete multipartite graphs in dense regimes and Cayley graphs in low-to-intermediate regimes, and then refines the remaining edges through a learning-based procedure. Numerical results show that the proposed method achieves high algebraic connectivity with favorable runtime scalability, outperforming existing methods. These results support a structural-family-first strategy for scalable network design.
arXiv:2610.12542v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is often proposed for scheduling directed-acyclic-graph (DAG) workflows, yet most studies never run the comparison that could refute it - giving a much simpler method the same search effort. We run that comparison under a controlled protocol. All arms receive an identical budget - the same number of candidate schedules built and evaluated: an MCTS scheduling method, preregistered as the main arm; a randomized-restart list scheduler with no search tree as the control; and a textbook-UCT MCTS arm as a registered follow-up on the same domain. The analysis plan was locked before data collection; an independent checker confirmed all 768 confirmation-stage schedules valid with correct finish times. At the main budget of 2048 evaluated schedules, MCTS is 2.88% worse than the restarts (95% CI [-3.62%,-2.15%]; the 72 of 96 held-out instances with positive baseline-relative headroom). The deficit is not budget starvation: on the separate exploration pool restarts self-improve by 1.85% where MCTS gains 0.24%, and 700 of 720 of MCTS's first results are merely the warm start it was handed. The studied selection rule locks deterministically onto the first-expanded child, keeping its trials correlated while restarts draw gains from the tails; the causal link to makespan remains an inference. A structural map locates where the tree stops paying: restarts win on sparse irregular workflows, no difference is detectable on regular layered ones, and dense ones leave no room to improve. Swapping the rule for textbook UCT removes most of the deficit (-0.26%, 95% CI [-0.71%,+0.23%]) without reversing its sign. Results are confined to a controlled synthetic domain (N in {8,16,32} tasks, 2-8 processors, budgets up to 2048); we make no claim about larger budgets.
arXiv:2610.12518v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This position paper argues that the generative molecular dynamics (GenMD) community is not properly evaluating its progress: current evaluations let a model match what is reported while being arbitrarily wrong on what was claimed, which risks over-claiming advantage over classical baselines. This reflects a structural misalignment between common evaluation practices and the scientific tasks the field sets for itself. The reason is that the ground truth---exhaustive molecular dynamics on the systems of interest---is computationally costly, and this cost is what motivates the field. With ground truth inaccessible, evaluation drifts toward convenient proxies, and the resulting norms entrench easily. We identify misaligned evaluation patterns that persist as a community-level equilibrium, and propose concrete observables, reporting standards, and benchmark designs, both computational and experimental, that better reflect what GenMD aspires to deliver. Our aim is to give the field shared language and tools for evaluation that match its scientific ambitions before today's conventions calcify into norms.
arXiv:2610.12501v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many headphone users risk irreversible hearing damage during high-load listening, yet current protection still relies on sound-pressure limits. Clinical tests detect damage after it becomes measurable, leaving the risk-accumulating process unobserved. The acoustic reflex (AR), an involuntary response to high acoustic load, marks when the ear enters a protective state. AR traces are weak, and existing measurements require dedicated probes and controlled conditions that are difficult to maintain during everyday audio. We present EarLog, which turns playback, the dominant interference, into an opportunistic probe. EarLog introduces content-conditioned residual sensing to suppress variations caused by nonstationary content, individual ear acoustics, and device response. It identifies weak AR through loudness-dependent changes and localized spectral irregularities in the residual. A resonance-constrained sparse finite impulse response (FIR) model captures the short-window response. Dual-microphone observations, mild-distortion recovery, and cross-session reference updates keep detection usable under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), fit changes, and environmental drift. EarLog runs in real time on an embedded controller using a low-cost dual-microphone add-on. We evaluate it with 81 participants, 16 headphone models, and more than 400 hours of recordings. EarLog achieves 99.0% sensitivity and 98.7% specificity on a clinically referenced benchmark. EarLog records listener-specific AR events during everyday listening, providing data for future longitudinal studies of hearing risk.
arXiv:2610.12500v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a major public health challenge, and early identification is crucial for timely intervention and care planning. Recent work has shown that speech-based digital biomarkers can capture subtle changes in vocal production, prosody, and timing that often precede or accompany cognitive decline. In this study, we investigate whether acoustic features extracted from spontaneous speech can reliably distinguish individuals with AD from healthy controls. Using a structured speech dataset derived from the Cookie Theft picture-description task, we extract clinically informative low-level descriptors spanning prosodic, spectral, and temporal domains, and evaluate a range of machine learning classifiers. Our results indicate that acoustic biomarkers carry strong discriminative value, with the best-performing models achieving clinically meaningful separation between diagnostic groups. These findings support the use of non-invasive, low-cost audio-based screening tools and motivate further work on multimodal and longitudinal assessment frameworks for dementia risk detection.
arXiv:2610.12493v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) tools have often been presented as methods to increase trust in machine learning models by making aspects of their algorithms more human-understandable. However, evidence accumulated over the last decade points to an overall failure of this objective, instead promoting overreliance on incorrect predictions, which can subsequently lead to algorithmic aversion. Rather, XAI appears to function primarily as a debugging tool, useful for obtaining anecdotal insights into, for example, features learned by the model. One of the main issues underlying this limitation is that XAI methods often oversimplify the inner workings of the model, resulting in misalignment between the explanation and the model itself - a behavior referred to as unfaithfulness or infidelity. Faithfulness can be interpreted as the degree of approximation between an explanation and the model. Computing faithfulness in a rigorous manner would thus make it possible to quantify one of the various elements of trustworthiness of an explanation. However, existing metrics present significant limitations, making this quantification either infeasible or computationally expensive. In this position paper, we outline five major shortcomings of current faithfulness metrics and propose four possible avenues for research to bolster their reliability.
arXiv:2610.12471v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Satellite onboard computing faces an irreducible tension: mission intelligence requirements grow monotonically while power, mass, and radiation budgets remain fixed. This paper advances the state of the art on three fronts. First, we develop a formal mathematical model of spiking neural computation for satellite workloads, deriving closed-form expressions for energy consumption as a function of network sparsity, firing rate, and synaptic fan-out. Second, we propose three original algorithms -- a Spiking Kalman-Complementary Filter (SKCF) for attitude estimation, a Temporal Contrast Anomaly Detector (TCAD) for spacecraft health monitoring, and a Spike-Based Adaptive Modulation and Coding (SAMC) scheme for cognitive satellite links -- each with pseudocode and analytical complexity bounds. Third, we introduce a quantitative Energy-Accuracy-Latency (EAL) trade-off surface and populate it with numerical estimates derived from published silicon measurements of Loihi and SpiNNaker, enabling direct comparison with FPGA and GPU baselines. A taxonomy of four radiation-aware neuromorphic architecture classes is refined with fault-rate models. Continual on-orbit learning is formalized through a constrained Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) rule that provably bounds weight drift. Case studies for a 12U CubeSat Earth observation mission, a GEO communications payload, and an autonomous deep-space probe provide concrete, quantified design points. Our analysis shows that neuromorphic implementations can achieve 8 to 47 times energy reduction over GPU baselines while maintaining inference accuracy within 2.1\% for representative satellite workloads.
arXiv:2501.17499v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A variety of complex biological, natural and man-made systems exhibit non-Markovian dynamics that can be modeled through fractional order differential equations, yet, we lack sample comlexity aware system identification strategies. Towards this end, we propose an affine discrete-time fractional order dynamical system (FoDS) identification algorithm and provide a detailed sample complexity analysis. The algorithm effectively addresses the challenges of FoDS identification in the presence of noisy data. The proposed algorithm consists of two key steps. Firstly, it avoids solving higher-order polynomial equations, which would otherwise result in multiple potential solutions for the fractional orders. Secondly, the identification problem is reformulated as a least squares estimation, allowing us to infer the system parameters. We derive the expectation and probabilistic bounds for the FoDS parameter estimation error, assuming prior knowledge of the functions \( f \) and \( g \) in the FoDS model. The error decays at a rate of \( N = O\left( \frac{d}{\epsilon} \right) \), where \( N \) is the number of samples, \( d \) is the dimension of the state variable, and \( \epsilon \) represents the desired estimation accuracy. Simulation results demonstrate that our theoretical bounds are tight, validating the accuracy and robustness of this algorithm.
arXiv:2610.13924v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A parallel sampler can choose at random which coordinates to generate together. For a target $p$ and the output law $q_U$ of a schedule $U$ drawn afresh for each output, we compare the schedule-averaged divergence $\mathbb{E}_U D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p\|q_U)$ with the output-law divergence $D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p\|\mathbb{E}_U q_U)$, in nats. Rounds commit independent draws from exact conditional marginals frozen at the round's start, each output's schedule is drawn before sampling from a finite mixture of schedules, and every scheduled round is charged. For the uniform distribution on binary strings of even length $n$ with $n/2$ ones, the least expected number of rounds at a fixed tolerance $\varepsilon>0$ is $\Theta_\varepsilon((\log n)^2)$ under the first criterion but $(e^{-\varepsilon}+o(1))\log_2\ln n$ under the second, and the double-logarithmic order is attainable with the same round count on every run. For this target, a count-state recursion gives the exact least output divergence at every round cap over all causal randomized policies. The separation extends to weighted fixed-count targets with bounded weight ratios and quota fractions bounded away from zero and one, without permutation symmetry, and to the full-support Beta$(1,1)$--Bernoulli target, where the sharp expected cost under the output-law criterion is $(e^{-\varepsilon}/2+o(1))\log_2\log_2n$, attained with rare $n$-round runs. Prior work implies the order of the schedule-averaged cost on the balanced target and its $O_\varepsilon((\log n)^2)$ upper bounds on both extensions.
arXiv:2610.13841v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Coding agents often make useful progress before they fail, but retry-from-scratch discards the machine state created along the way. This makes failure recovery an interesting search problem: if intermediate environment states preserve meaningful progress, restoring and branching from them could outperform repeatedly restarting from the initial state. We implement Go-Explore-style search over full Daytona snapshots and find that higher and more efficient solve rates depend mainly on progress that sits outside the repository, such as databases, services, and other runtime state. Our results suggest that full-snapshot search is most effective when long-horizon coding work spans multiple services whose state cannot be reconstructed from a single diff.