arXiv:2610.10989v1 公告类型：new 摘要：研究人员一直在持续探索有效的一步生成模型，而 Drifting Models（Deng et al., 2026）近期展现出了一步生成的巨大潜力。已有研究揭示了 Diffusion & Flow Style Generative Models（DFSGMs）（Ho et al., 2020；Song et al., 2020a；b；Lipman et al., 2022；Liu et al., 2022）与 Drifting Models（Li & Zhu, 2026；Lai et al., 2026；Turan et al., 2026）之间的联系。然而，据我们所知，尽管二者的优化目标公式几乎完全相同，尚无人在 Drifting Model 与广泛使用的蒸馏方法 Distribution Matching Distillation（DMD/DMD2）（Yin et al., 2024b；a）之间建立精确的对应关系。在本文中，我们证明，通过将预训练 DFSGMs 中的速度场/噪声场转换为 Drifting Models 中的吸引力场，并从生成分布中估计排斥力场，训练 Drifting Model 在本质上等价于 Distribution Matching Distillation。基于这一等价概念，我们从 Drifting Model 的视角出发，提出了一种基于 DMD 的改进方法——Multi-Bandwidth Distribution Matching Distillation（MBDMD）。
arXiv:2610.10972v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Assessing useful reuse in neural PDE solvers is challenging: final accuracy can reflect source learning and target-time computation. Our reuse contract separates solution accuracy, learning contribution, and numerical utility through paired state comparisons, matched target information and budgets, and cost accounting. A literature audit extracts 18 version-specific protocol records from 12 papers, documenting retained states, target-time resources, and reported controls. For a fixed linear system and residual tolerance, we construct two initial guesses with identical solution-error, energy-error, and residual norms, reaching the same solution with different conjugate-gradient (CG) iteration counts. Across 240 source-training trajectories, two linear PDE families, Fourier neural operators and convolutional networks, a fixed predictor's benefit reverses across correction algorithms. Among pairs with both relative prediction errors less than or equal to 5 percent on 64 in-distribution tasks (63 by 63 interior grids), reductions in all three norms accompany more CG iterations, at mean taskwise rates of 23.5 percent and 23.9 percent in two libraries. Work-based selection saves 2.50-3.33 CG iterations on held-out in-distribution tasks; matched adaptation demonstrates finite-budget pretraining value. Independent batches confirm a 0.73 percent complete online saving for one physics-trained Fourier neural operator against zero-initialized Poisson-preconditioned CG. Reuse requires matched state comparisons and downstream computational evidence.
arXiv:2610.10965v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Muon optimizer orthogonalizes each update matrix, setting all of its singular values to one, and has proven highly effective for training large language models. It remains unclear, however, whether this success comes from amplifying small singular directions that gradient descent neglects or from suppressing large, degenerate directions that disrupt training. We introduce Spectrally Targeted Muon, which orthogonalizes only the singular values above or below a threshold $\tau$, so that varying $\tau$ interpolates between normalized SGD and Muon. It isolates the relevant singular subspaces with projections computed by Newton-Schulz iteration on a shifted Gram matrix, so no SVD is needed. We evaluate these variants on the CIFAR-10 and NanoGPT speedruns, tracking the effective rank of gradient, update, and weight matrices and a new metric, the alignment of updates with the tangent space of the weight matrix's isospectral manifold. We find three things. First, the small singular values of the momentum are not noise. Orthogonalizing everything except the few largest singular values of each matrix nearly matches Muon while touching only a small fraction of the momentum, whereas orthogonalizing only the top falls well short even though it holds almost all of it. On language models every momentum singular value is far below one, so targeted orthogonalization can only amplify, and Muon wins by making directions that are too small to train on at their raw scale trainable. Second, shrinking the largest singular values is what keeps the parameter spectrum flat; this is cheap, and it is not what drives the loss. Third, AdamW differs from Muon mainly in how slowly it builds structure, which explains its slower start and why warmup helps AdamW but only hurts Muon.
arXiv:2610.10957v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Production AI systems deployed in high-stakes domains accumulate a governance liability that existing monitoring frameworks fail to detect: the progressive inability to explain individual decisions when regulators, auditors, or affected individuals demand accountability. We introduce TRACE (Transparency, Risk, Accountability, Compliance, and Explainability), a seven-instrument governance framework for measuring, tracking, and remediating Explainability Debt in production AI systems. The foundational instrument, the Explainability Debt Score (EDS), quantifies the proportion of production decisions falling below a governance-defined explainability confidence threshold at any point in time. Complementary instruments include DART (Debt Accumulation Rate Tracker for breach forecasting), SHIV (Scenario Health and Integrity Validator for daily governance), FDE (Feature Drift Evaluator for causal attribution), HVE (Human Validation Engine), AIDE (Audit Intervention Decision Engine), and ZERO (Zero Explainability Risk Optimiser for remediation). Through a twelve-month longitudinal case study of a production fraud detection system processing 50,000 daily financial transactions, achieving 98.46% accuracy and ROC-AUC of 0.9990, we demonstrate that an EDS of 0.23 on audit day was statistically predictable six months in advance using DART trajectory analysis (beta = 0.008/week, R-squared = 0.94, 95% CI: [0.006, 0.010]), and that 78% of Explainability Debt was concentrated in the highest-regulatory-risk decision category (transactions above $10,000), a risk asymmetry completely invisible to system-level metrics. TRACE provides the first quantitative operational architecture for EU AI Act Article 13 compliance in production AI deployment, establishing a new subdiscipline of explanation governance distinct from explanation generation.
arXiv:2610.10952v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Brain signal decoding is challenging because neural recordings are noisy and vary across individuals, while labeled data are often limited. Recent attention-based models on the symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifold have nevertheless achieved strong performance using covariance and connectivity representations, yet the contribution of learned token weighting remains unclear. We examine two representative architectures, MAtt (based on log-Euclidean geometry) and GBWAtt (based on generalized Bures--Wasserstein geometry), and find that their learned attention weights remain close to uniform after training. We relate this behavior to bounded similarity parameterizations that, under the original softmax scaling, limit attention-weight contrast. Moreover, replacing learned weights with uniform weights, throughout training and evaluation, has little effect on mean predictive performance while preserving each model's original aggregation geometry. Motivated by these findings, we introduce SPD-MetaFormer, an attention-free architecture built on uniformly weighted Fr\'echet aggregation under log-Euclidean geometry. Its backbone uses a geodesic residual to update a summary token and a shared spectral feedforward map to transform all tokens, followed by a learned weighted readout. Token states remain SPD-valued until tangent-space classification. Across three EEG benchmarks, SPD-MetaFormer achieves competitive results relative to published Euclidean and manifold baselines. Separate matched reproductions test learned versus uniform weighting within MAtt and GBWAtt. These results suggest that, in the short-sequence and limited-data regimes studied, carefully designed SPD architectures can provide a simpler and effective alternative to adaptive manifold attention.
arXiv:2610.10933v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spiking language models face a tradeoff between representing continuous semantic features over short temporal windows and retaining costly nonlinear attention operations. We introduce Spora, which jointly designs spike encodings and attention operators. Binary temporal weights let $T$ spikes represent compositional values with up to $T$ bits of capacity, compared with $O(\log_2 T)$ bits for spike-count readout. Unipolar Binary Spiking (UBS) uses thresholds and spike-triggered residual decay to produce non-negative integer codes; Bipolar Binary Spiking (BBS) separates sign and magnitude and learns a scale for signed activations. These representations support accumulation-and-shift dot products and integer-exponent mappings in attention. With four time steps, Spora achieves 76.6 average GLUE score and 44.1 CoLA MCC, improving over SpikeLM by 1.2 and 6.2 points, respectively. Extending BBS to six steps raises these scores to 78.2 and 47.4. Conditional-decay analysis, matched-budget activation-quantization comparisons, event-workload statistics, and fixed-point evaluation further characterize the connection between encoding fidelity and computational cost.
arXiv:2610.10931v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In memetic symbolic regression, candidate structures are compared after coefficient calibration, so the calibration protocol itself contributes to evolutionary selection. Standard centralized calibration evaluates each structure at its pooled-sample optimum, ignoring how stable this calibration is under covariate shifts, and can thus favor structures whose fit relies on sample-specific coefficients. We propose Dirichlet-Sinkhorn Constant Averaging (DSCA), a calibration strategy that partitions the optimization data into equally sized subsets with different covariate distributions, calibrates each candidate independently on every partition, and evaluates it at the mean of the resulting parameters. We show that the excess loss of DSCA relative to centralized calibration vanishes at the population level for correctly specified, identifiable expressions, whereas under misspecification it persists when partition-specific calibrations do not aggregate to the pooled optimum. On synthetic benchmarks and ten real-world datasets, DSCA improves functional recovery and the accuracy-complexity trade-off over centralized Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno and Levenberg-Marquardt calibration, under selection by negative log-likelihood and by the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. Mechanism analyses associate the DSCA excess loss with the generalization gap and show that the effect is not reproduced by repeated centralized fitting. These results indicate that controlled heterogeneous calibration provides a complementary source of selection pressure in symbolic-regression search.
arXiv:2610.10926v1 公告类型：new 摘要：将机器学习工作负载作为网络服务进行管理，会引入不同于传统模型训练的资源编排问题：应为任务分配哪些节点，如何在这些节点之间划分通信与计算预算，以及在连接性和节点可用性随移动性变化时如何维持服务质量。在车联网（IoV）环境中部署生成对抗网络（GANs）正是这一问题的一个棘手实例；资源约束、动态网络拓扑以及相互竞争的优化目标意味着，传统 GAN 架构无法同时实现高精度、高效资源利用、低延迟和低通信开销。本文提出一种自适应多判别器 Wasserstein GAN（MD-WGAN）框架，将强化学习与基于博弈论的协调机制相结合，以协同应对这些挑战。在该框架中，路侧单元部署生成器，并为其配备 Deep Q-Network（DQN）智能体；这些智能体负责选择判别器子集，并管理移动车辆节点上的分布式训练，同时通过基于博弈论的协调步骤在生成器和判别器之间分配训练轮次。统一的优化目标将对抗学习质量与车辆网络约束下的资源效率、通信开销和延迟联系起来，使框架能够随着网络状况变化持续调整其训练行为。在真实世界 NGSIM 轨迹数据上的评估表明，该框架的预测精度与当前最先进的 GAN 基线相当——在所有评估方法中取得最低的 RMSE（1.029）和 MAE（0.894）——同时显著提升了资源效率：平均 CPU 利用率降低约 28%，平均内存使用量降低约 6%，且通信开销和延迟具有竞争力。
arXiv:2610.10867v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Complex Network (CN) classification requires high-level structural characterizations that are both scale-invariant and computationally efficient. Methods based on Life-Like Network Automata (LLNA) offer an interesting way to extract network descriptors by leveraging emergent temporal patterns without requiring provided features, but their efficacy is bottlenecked by a high-cost combinatorial optimization problem: the selection of the automaton transition rule. While current literature relies on exhaustive searches that are unfeasible for large-scale applications, this work reveals that the rule space is fundamentally structured by a property we term ``jaggedness'', that quantifies the resemblance of a LLNA transition function with a sawtooth shape. We demonstrate that this metric acts as a theoretical proxy for chaoticity and sensitivity -- properties essential for generating discriminative dynamic behaviors among network categories. Moreover, we introduce a heuristic search strategy that uses jaggedness to guide the rule selection. Experimental results show that our approach achieves classification accuracies within 5% of the global optimum while reducing computational overhead by 90% compared to exhaustive approach. Our findings provide a novel, efficient, framework for optimizing automata-based methods for pattern recognition.
arXiv:2610.10854v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Knowledge distillation is an established technique for improving the capabilities of small, efficient student models by training them with the representations of larger, more capable teacher models. Much of the recent work in the distillation of large language models (LLMs) has focused on distilling abilities learned during post-training, such as instruction following, chain-of-thought reasoning, and tool usage. This has left a large research gap in general knowledge distillation for LLMs, which is essential for developing efficient and private systems suitable for deployment on edge devices. We take a first-principles approach, evaluating previous lessons from prior works and conducting new explorations to develop a distillation methodology suitable for modern LLMs. We present KDFP, a novel methodology for white-box general knowledge distillation in LLMs. We demonstrate that KDFP outperforms existing methods by 1.6% $-$ 4.9% across 9 benchmarks while increasing training efficiency by up to 99.1% through ephemeral parameter reduction.
arXiv:2610.10850v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As AI models move toward clinical decision-making and personalized treatment, understanding \emph{what} a model learns is important beyond predictive accuracy alone. We investigate whether personalized latent dynamics reveal clinically associated differences even when predictive fit is similar. A lightweight CNN--Transformer EEG foundation model pretrained on the Temple University EEG Corpus (TUEG) extracts segment-level representations. Using the Temple University Epilepsy Corpus (TUEP), representations are mapped to a shared latent-state space, and sparse multinomial logistic transition distributions (mLTD) are fit independently to each subject to obtain personalized transition-dependency graphs $W_n$. Analyses include $n{=}198$ subjects (99 epilepsy / 99 non-epilepsy). At $k{=}4$, epilepsy subjects exhibit substantially denser learned dependency structure ($p{=}1.1\times10^{-7}$), with the same pattern at $k{=}6$ (19.90 vs. 13.46; $p{=}5.2\times10^{-5}$). Graph-derived features provide moderate group discrimination under 5-fold subject-wise cross-validation (AUROC 0.68 at $k{=}4$; 0.65 at $k{=}6$). In contrast, held-out log-likelihood is nearly identical between groups at $k{=}4$ ($-0.992$ vs. $-0.991$; $p{=}0.95$), with similarly matched next-state prediction (AUROC 0.855 vs. 0.861; $p{=}0.54$). Thus, similar predictive fit does not imply similar learned dynamics: groups can be comparably predictable while differing substantially in the internal dynamical structure learned by personalized models. This distinction motivates evaluating learned structure alongside predictive performance in personalized clinical models.
arXiv:2610.10848v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate evaluation is central to selecting which LLM to deploy, yet testing a candidate on live traffic exposes real users to an unvetted model. Teams therefore evaluate candidates offline, on data produced by already-deployed models. This is off-policy evaluation (OPE), and it faces two distribution shifts: as a model is updated in post-training, its responses diverge from the logged ones (policy shift), and the reward definition under which it is judged changes with business requirements (reward shift). Classical OPE methods are ill-suited to this continual-deployment setting because they are defined per task and require fitting from scratch on every new logged dataset or reward definition. To address this, we propose PFN-OPE, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes OPE across a distribution of contextual-bandit tasks. We pretrain it once on tasks constructed from a pool of LLM responses scored by several reward functions, in which both shifts occur. At test-time it maps a logged dataset and one sampled target response per prompt to a value estimate in a single forward pass, with no per-task fitting. On HelpSteer2 and UltraFeedback with Qwen, Llama, and Gemma policies, PFN-OPE achieves 2.0 to 9.3 times lower error than the best baselines across all tested configurations in the reward-shifted settings.
arXiv:2610.10832v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conventional decision tree algorithms produce effective, transparent models that can be audited, communicated, and deployed independently of the training data, but require learning every new task from scratch. In contrast, tabular foundation models demonstrate that meta-learning from a synthetic prior distribution enables strong in-context prediction for previously unseen tasks, especially in small-sample regimes. However, this approach does not produce a standalone model that can be inspected in isolation. We introduce MotherTree, a tabular transformer that meta-learns decision tree induction: given a training set for a new task, it outputs a hard, axis-aligned decision tree, equivalent in form to classically trained trees, in a single forward pass. MotherTree is pre-trained on a synthetic prior using stochastic gradient descent without requiring reference trees for supervision. On established benchmarks with controlled sample size, the approach is competitive with size-matched trees from common algorithms: recursive partitioning, gradient-based tree learning, globally optimal trees, and distillation from tabular foundation models. Notably, MotherTree consistently improves over from-scratch gradient-based learning and acts as a strong initializer: task-specific tuning of the generated tree outperforms the corresponding from-scratch learner on all benchmarks and sample sizes. These results show that meta-learning can provide effective inductive biases for learning stand-alone, small decision tree classifiers.
arXiv:2610.10808v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When audio, video, and text disagree, accuracy alone does not show whether to acquire another source or abstain. We study these choices in a controlled three-score benchmark: a policy observes two signed scores, may request the third at a cost, and can abstain. The primary reward is mechanism-specific: abstention is correct only for one designated ambiguity mechanism and is penalized under mixed corruption. Matched controls show that a threshold policy matches always-request decisions with fewer requests; its advantage over always-answer fusion depends on the reward assigned to that ambiguity. On a partially held-out synthetic split, the threshold policy reaches 0.789 +/- 0.006 targeted decision accuracy and 0.481 +/- 0.014 utility across 83 seeds. A three-score majority reference reaches 0.626 +/- 0.008 and 0.252 +/- 0.016, but uses more information. In a matched-budget test, a train-only value selector improves utility over no-query and matched-random policies at 10% and 25% budgets, while pair uncertainty has higher utility at every budget. At 50% and 63.7% budgets, the selector lowers utility despite slightly higher non-ambiguous accuracy. If all abstentions are scored incorrect, majority outranks the threshold policy in utility. At a central temporal setting, full-trace controls match the neural models while position perturbations separate them. On held-out-actor emotion clips, eight-frame fusion has opposite-signed accuracy differences for two encoder pairs, with both actor intervals containing zero; matched-request routing gains are small and uncertain. These results separate full-modality accuracy from pre-request selection value and show that selection value depends on budget and the observed-pair ranking.
arXiv:2610.10807v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating the symbolic or analytical form of probability density functions (PDFs) from observed samples is a fundamental challenge in statistical and computational modelling. This process is critical for deriving interpretable and generalizable relationships characterizing the underlying phenomenon. Traditionally, this estimation depends strongly on domain expertise and prior field-specific knowledge, with experts selecting appropriate functional forms or parametric families based on empirical evidence and theoretical understanding. The coefficients of these forms are then typically determined through parameter estimation. In this paper, we develop a framework for estimating symbolic expressions of unnormalized distributions from observed samples using domain-specific prior knowledge, such as the range of interactions and a predefined set of primitive functions. We integrate deep generative models with symbolic regression (SR), incorporating inductive biases, such as factorizing large distributions, to keep the problem tractable. The deep generative models we examine include likelihood-based models, viz., flow models, and score-based models. Experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed framework for estimating density functions for multivariate toy distributions as well as lattices from computational physics, namely, XY model and $\phi^4$ theory. When applied to the renormalization problem in $\phi^4$ theory, the proposed framework estimates compact symbolic approximations of the hamiltonian function at different scales directly from samples, yielding expressions that may be challenging to derive using traditional perturbative or analytic approaches in nonperturbative settings.
arXiv:2610.10776v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Equivariant graph neural networks have emerged as foundational architectures for machine-learned interatomic potentials, approaching quantum-chemical accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. These models describe local atomic environments accurately, but finite spatial cutoffs truncate long-range information flow, and stacking message-passing layers can lead to over-smoothing and over-squashing. Existing long-range extensions either prescribe a fixed analytical propagation kernel, restrict long-range communication to scalars or degree-preserving channels, are only approximately equivariant, or incur super-linear computational cost. Combining learnable long-range equivariant transport with multiscale many-body expressivity and efficient scaling for larger systems remains a central challenge. We introduce Neural Equivariant Multipole Operators (NEMORA), a neural equivariant extension of the Fast Multipole Method (FMM) for learning long-range tensorial representations. NEMORA generalizes the FMM's analytical multipole expansion and translation operators to learned equivariant counterparts on an adaptive spatial hierarchy. Its operators couple angular degrees and form many-body interactions across length scales, retaining the FMM's hierarchical organization and analytical radial factors as physical inductive biases while learning data-dependent long-range couplings. NEMORA evaluates in linear time and memory complexity, allowing it to treat larger systems than other long-range methods reaching hundreds of thousands of atoms, and it augments both symmetry-constrained and unconstrained short-range backbones. On non-local benchmarks, it reduces force and energy errors relative to the short-range backbones by over an order of magnitude and up to three orders of magnitude, respectively, which is better than or competitive with existing long-range extensions in accuracy.
arXiv:2610.10690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) offer linear-time scaling with sequence length while requiring only constant memory, yet they struggle to capture long-range dependencies due to vanishing gradients and limited receptive fields. To address these limitations, we introduce a second-order recurrent model in which the standard neuron-to-neuron communication is replaced by a spatially evolving field governed by (discretized) partial differential equations. Drawing inspiration from the role of cortical waves in brain computation, this mechanism allows structured spatiotemporal patterns to serve as an implicit, high-capacity memory. We show that the resulting model is equivalent to a structured infinite-order RNN in which the current state depends explicitly on its entire history of past states, yielding an effectively unbounded receptive field with a fixed number of parameters. We further derive constructive conditions to ensure marginal stability, constraining the gradient spectrum on the unit circle and thereby eliminating vanishing and exploding gradients. Empirically, the proposed architecture outperforms other recurrent models on long-horizon benchmarks while using substantially fewer parameters, demonstrating that spatial dynamics can effectively bridge the gap between efficient inference and long-term memory.
arXiv:2610.10662v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: ECG is widely used to teach PPG-only models, yet what it teaches is unexamined. Wearables are valued for tracking how a person's cardiovascular state changes, but ECG-to-PPG distillation mostly learns who the person is. A per-recording mean, the trait, holds 40-59% of a frozen ECG teacher's target, and pooled students memorise it without carrying it to new recordings. The raw alignment cosine misses this, since a constant predictor scores 0.793. Across 34 runs, the more identity a student memorises, the less state it learns. Fixed-effects distillation subtracts each recording's mean from prediction and target, so the trait cancels exactly, while a pooled anchor keeps it. State agreement more than doubles, within-person labels improve while age and sex do not, and the gain holds on two backbones and two further databases. Conditioning on the recording turns distillation toward the within-person changes that wearables monitor.
arXiv:2610.10655v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) inevitably internalize substantial amounts of sensitive or private information during pre-training, while LLM unlearning aims to selectively erase specific knowledge to prevent privacy leakage with minimal loss of model utility. However, existing methods struggle to balance forget quality with utility, and typically incur substantial computational costs due to parameter fine-tuning. To address this, we propose Nullify, a training-free, non-destructive activation steering method for LLM unlearning. Nullify employs steering vectors during inference to redirect privacy-related activations away from their memorized answers, while satisfying a null-space constraint that leaves retained-query activations essentially unaffected to maintain utility. Evaluations on TOFU and MUSE show that Nullify matches or surpasses established baselines in forget quality while achieving near-lossless preservation of model utility. By avoiding weight updates entirely, Nullify serves as an efficient, plug-and-play inference-time intervention framework.
arXiv:2610.10651v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper exposes the ergodic ceiling and thermodynamic inefficiency of current deep learning, which converges to a statistical average of historic human knowledge. True semantic novelty requires a path-dependent, spatiotemporally bounded observer (a Data LifeCone) to inject non-ergodic insight, achieving KL divergence and avoiding manifold lock-in. AI Safety must recognise that a mature Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) would regard human-AI symbiosis as a thermodynamic necessity to avoid model collapse. We therefore propose hard physical containment via a digital physics sandbox powered by a Holographic E8 Projection Engine to verify models against real-world constraints. Spacetime is modeled as an information substrate of nested face-centered cubic (FCC) lattices of oscillating Planck-scale spheres maximizing local information and entropy density. Cut-and-project methods from the E8 root lattice produce a quasi-crystalline geometry where tetrahedral voids support SU chiral structure and elastic-shear eigenvalues generate candidate mass spectra. Rest mass is treated as discrete, integer microstate counts on local holographic boundaries (Bekenstein bound), replacing floating-point approximations with strict integer arithmetic to provide an information-theoretic definition of matter. Stable particles emerge as recurring lattice dislocations, and continuum recovery proceeds via variational renormalisation-group flows and Fourier Neural Operators that learn continuous spectral operators to recover the Schr\"odinger equation as an emergent statistical description. Crucially, these top-down topological constraints offer a mechanism for "NP-to-P" complexity collapse: by restricting an algorithm's proposal space to physically conserved causal trajectories, the sandbox prunes the combinatorial tree to deterministic, polynomial-time paths.
arXiv:2610.10648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Alzheimer's disease prediction involves irregular visits, heterogeneous measurements and incomplete modalities. This study presents a multimodal multitask framework combining an adapted SFCN MRI encoder, four causal clinical Transformers, shared fusion and task-specific ODE-GRU dynamics. Fine-tuning and LoRA adapt the final two MRI blocks. Task-DRO balances task losses, while Group-CVaR targets cohort and comorbidity strata. Branch-specific input controls, subject-grouped partitions and empirical causality checks support longitudinal evaluation. Across 2,649 subjects and 17,317 visits from ADNI, OASIS-2 and MIRIAD, internal validation yields diagnosis, stage-1 progression and first-stage-1-visit progression AUROCs of 0.935 +/- 0.002, 0.884 +/- 0.003 and 0.870 +/- 0.005, respectively (mean +/- SD across three seeds). Corresponding hybrid AUROCs are 0.951, 0.909 and 0.896. Next-visit MMSE mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.61 points; worst-stratum diagnosis AUROC is 0.827 +/- 0.008. Sampled ADNI explanations identify task-specific input dependence. OASIS-3 external validation yields network and hybrid diagnosis AUROCs of 0.763 and 0.767, hybrid next-visit progression AUROC of 0.764, diagnosis calibration error decreasing from 0.197 to 0.052, and next-visit MMSE MAE of 0.86. Seed-42 paired ablations of six components yield pooled diagnosis and progression AUROC differences between -0.004 and +0.004; removing clinical encoder inputs lowers diagnosis AUROC by 0.272. The framework integrates longitudinal prediction, missing-modality handling, auxiliary comorbidity modelling and subgroup evaluation within a common pipeline.