arXiv:2610.10934v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Actuator degradation turns quadruped locomotion into a coordination problem requiring joints to compensate for lost actuation. Prior work suggests that morphology-aware graph policies improve learning and generalization under body perturbations. We ask whether these benefits can be strengthened by explicitly modeling higher-order mechanical structure. We represent the Unitree Go1 as a cell complex with limb- and body-level rank-2 cells and apply Hodge-based message passing. Under degradation training, the node-edge-face Hodge actor achieves the highest return on unseen actuator degradations, with higher survival and lower velocity-tracking error. These results support higher-order morphology as a useful inductive bias for whole-body compensation under actuator degradation.
arXiv:2610.10912v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Shortcut learning is a prevalent issue in robot learning. The limited diversity of robot demonstration datasets can mislead policies into exploiting spurious correlations between tasks and irrelevant features, such as viewpoint or background. Collecting sufficiently diverse robot demonstrations is costly and inefficient, motivating algorithmic alternatives. We focus on vision-language-action (VLA) models and discover that different vision-language model backbones exhibit substantially different levels of susceptibility to visual shortcut learning. We find that model behavior correlates with our proposed representation-level metric, action margin, which requires no policy rollouts. Visual shortcuts consistently enter action representations in early layers, with models differing in the extent to which later layers correct them by incorporating language information. To boost models' attention to language, we introduce task scrubbing, a new domain-adversarial training method that decreases models' likelihood of using visual shortcuts and improves VLAs' generalization. Experiments in both simulation and the real world across multiple VLAs and visual cues show that task scrubbing improves out-of-distribution robustness and often eliminates visual shortcut learning.
arXiv:2610.10909v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Membership inference attacks (MIAs) threaten the privacy of machine learning (ML) training data by determining whether a sample was used to train a target model. Existing MIAs rely on model outputs, ranging from prediction probabilities to predicted labels, an assumption that can be restrictive for on-device ML systems with limited or inaccessible outputs. However, suppressing model outputs does not eliminate the data-dependent computations that produce them, which may remain observable through physical side channels. We present PSCMIA, a power side-channel membership inference attack against embedded ML models that can infer membership directly from power traces without requiring prediction probabilities or even the predicted labels. We evaluate PSCMIA across multiple datasets (MNIST, FMNIST, CIFAR10, CINIC10), fully connected (FC) and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures, and two embedded platforms (STM32F3, XMEGA). PSCMIA achieves ROC-AUC values of up to 0.907 on FC models. For CNN models, the ROC-AUC gap between PSCMIA and probability vector-based shadow MIA ranges from 0.006 to 0.116. Across the FC and CNN evaluations, PSCMIA outperforms label-only MIA in 11 of 16 model-dataset-hardware configurations, demonstrating that physical execution can expose membership information even when conventional model outputs are unavailable through unintended power side-channel leakage.
arXiv:2610.10859v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Text-to-image diffusion models are increasingly distilled into few-step variants and being deployed to enable fast inference. However, their ability to generate harmful or undesired content poses significant safety risks. Data-driven unlearning methods suppress targeted generations by fine-tuning model weights using specialized unlearning objectives. Crucially, these objectives implicitly rely on multi-step denoising dynamics, an assumption that breaks down for few-step distilled (FSD) models, resulting in ineffective forgetting. Furthermore, performing unlearning on the non-distilled base model and subsequently re-distilling it to obtain an unlearned FSD model incurs substantial computational and time overhead, making it impractical in many settings. Hence, we address this limitation with a preference-driven unlearning framework that revisits Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) for diffusion models. We show that standard DPO and its unlearning derivatives, formulated around noise-prediction error, transfer poorly to FSD models due to their altered generation dynamics. To overcome this, we introduce a modified preference optimization formulation explicitly aligned with the few-step generation properties, enabling direct concept removal in FSD models while preserving few-step efficiency and maintaining strong retention of desirable (non-targeted) capabilities. We evaluate our framework primarily on identity and NSFW (nudity) removal tasks and also extend our method to object-level unlearning. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent and effective forgetting, and strong retention performance, establishing our method as a practical and principled solution for unlearning in FSD models.
arXiv:2610.10858v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Analog/RF circuits remain the critical interface between digital computation and the physical world, and emerging standards from Wi-Fi 7 to 6G place stringent demands on them, yet analog/RF design remains one of the most labor-intensive steps in chip development. We present RFChipAgent, a first-of-its-kind multi-agent flow of large language model (LLM) agents for end-to-end analog/RF circuit design automation, in which AI agents collaboratively orchestrate the complete design flow under human supervision. RFChipAgent is built around four technical pillars. First, a multimodal retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) subsystem with private per-document FAISS indexing extracts design knowledge from existing engineering documentation. Second, a topology agent drives topology selection, and a schematic and testbench agent automates circuit and testbench assembly. Third, a closed-loop hybrid circuit-sizing engine combines Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and CMA-ES optimization, evaluating every candidate in a simulator-in-the-loop framework. Fourth, a trust-scored simulation database accumulates verified performance data and builds an adaptive optimization model that informs subsequent trials. We validate RFChipAgent on a family of GF22FDSOI 60 GHz wideband mm-wave low-noise amplifier (LNA) topologies, demonstrating automated topology generation, specification-driven design-space exploration, and simulator-guided optimization. Experimental results show substantial reductions in design effort while maintaining signoff-quality verification. This work establishes a foundation for LLM-driven multi-agent electronic design automation (EDA) for analog/RF circuits.
arXiv:2610.10805v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As AI systems increasingly interact with people and make decisions about them, understanding human interpretations becomes an important part of developing human-centered AI. Conventional machine learning and AI systems are largely developed under the assumption that a single definitive ground truth exists, with variability in human annotations often resolved through aggregation or treated as noise. However, for many human-centered tasks, human interpretation is inherently ambiguous, and multiple interpretations of the same input may be simultaneously reasonable and valid. Reducing such ambiguity to a single target risks overlooking meaningful information about the diversity of human perception, judgment, and experience. In this position paper, we call for a shift towards modeling the interpretation space of plausible human judgments, while distinguishing meaningful ambiguity from annotation noise. We argue that this perspective should guide how AI systems are represented, learned, evaluated, deployed, and governed, supporting more human-centered AI that better reflects the diversity of human interpretation.
arXiv:2610.10793v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) protects decisions against distributional uncertainty by optimizing over an ambiguity set, but poorly aligned set geometry can require large radii and yield overly conservative decisions. We introduce diagnostic-transport DRO (DT-DRO), which uses held-out calibration data to adapt the ambiguity-set geometry to observed predictive errors. DT-DRO uses the conditional probability integral transform cumulative distribution function to diagnose systematic probability misallocation and translates this information into an outcome-level transport that jointly adjusts the ambiguity-set center and ground cost. The resulting formulation admits a computationally tractable dual reformulation. Theoretically, we derive valid ambiguity radii and decision-risk guarantees that tighten as estimation and approximation errors vanish, and show that DT-DRO can eliminate the nonvanishing robustness floor caused by model misspecification. Synthetic experiments and a power-outage application demonstrate improved decision quality, particularly under structural and tail misspecification.
arXiv:2610.10758v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Enterprise conversation analytics asks many questions of millions of interactions. Each question can require reconstructing what people mean and identifying which information matters, repeating costly interpretive work across the same transcripts. We propose a simple principle: clarify the text, then focus the reader. Statement normalization transforms dialogue into short, speaker-attributed statements with source references and semantic tags. The statements make meaning more explicit; the tags support selecting evidence for a particular question. Downstream models can use the full representation or a relevant subset, depending on what helps them make the decision. In an offer-suppression task on customer-service calls, normalization improves a supervised classifier without selection, while weaker prompted readers benefit from both normalization and selection. A small model can learn the normalization contract, while lightweight encoders handle tagging and downstream decisions. Sharing this preparation across questions supports an inference pipeline built entirely from small models, making analytics over millions of conversations substantially less expensive.
arXiv:2610.10697v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurately simulating chaotic quantum many-body dynamics remains a major computational challenge for classical methods, due to the rapid buildup and spatial spreading of entanglement during the evolution. This raises the question of whether machine learning can provide an effective alternative for predicting quantum dynamics. We address this question by formulating quantum dynamics as a time-series forecasting problem, using a few-qubit PXP chain, realizable with Rydberg-atom arrays, as a benchmark. By varying the initial state, the system spans dynamical regimes ranging from ergodic behavior to quantum many-body scarring, providing a controlled setting for testing forecasting models across qualitatively different dynamics. We compare two contrasting architectures: an expressive nonlinear Transformer and DLinear, a simple linear forecasting model. The Transformer accurately predicts dynamics in the more ergodic regime, but its performance progressively deteriorates as the initial state approaches the scarred limit. In contrast, DLinear remains accurate across the entire family of initial states, with its main deviations consisting of small high-frequency oscillations that have little effect on the overall prediction error. Remarkably, these results show that observables generated by complex quantum many-body dynamics can be forecast with high accuracy through a simple linear mapping from past to future observations. This reveals that the complexity of the underlying quantum evolution need not translate into an equally complex forecasting problem.
arXiv:2610.10663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bioacoustics and ethology encompass a wide range of audio understanding tasks, many of which stand to benefit from recent advances in large audio-language models. However, progress in the field has so far been assessed on a narrow set of tasks, primarily centered on label-centric biological category recognition, such as species and call-type classification. In this work, we introduce BEANS-Next, a benchmark grounded in a taxonomy of bioacoustics tasks spanning acoustic perception, biological category recognition, scene understanding, and in-context learning. Using BEANS-Next, we show that existing models exhibit limited performance beyond the task families emphasized by existing evaluations, constraining their usefulness for broader bioacoustic applications. To support progress on this broader task space, we also introduce ROOTS, a large-scale training resource built from expanded curated real-world data and previously underused behavioral and acoustic metadata, supplemented by audio-derived information and scalable synthetic generation where labeling is insufficient. We demonstrate that training on this dataset yields substantial progress across all task groups of BEANS-Next, moving audio-language models closer to their potential as general-purpose assistants for bioacoustics and ethology. To accelerate progress in the field, we open-source our benchmark, dataset, and data pipelines.
arXiv:2610.10625v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) provide a parameter efficient approach to scaling model capabilities through repeated use of shared parameters across recurrent steps. Since each recurrent depth can be read out independently, a single LoopLM exposes a broader output space across inference depths, raising an important question: whether safety is preserved throughout recurrent computation. Prior evaluations suggest that deeper recurrence can improve safety on harmful queries, but robustness under jailbreak attacks remains unclear. We therefore conduct a comprehensive safety evaluation of LoopLMs under jailbreak attacks targeting different recurrent depths. We find that attack success can increase at deeper inference depths, the same query can elicit different safety behaviors across depths, and attacks constructed against one depth can transfer to others. Moreover, SFT and preference alignment do not eliminate these safety gaps, motivating an alignment method designed for LoopLMs. We introduce SafeBridge, which combines lightweight depth specific control of shared recurrent layers, selective state bridging, and joint safety supervision across recurrent depths. Across model scales, multiple attack methods, and safety benchmarks, SafeBridge substantially reduces attack success for both matched-depth and cross-depth attacks. It also improves general utility over the vanilla models while maintaining comparable over-refusal behavior. Our results show that the safety of a LoopLM cannot be inferred from a single recurrent depth, motivating safety alignment across recurrent computation. Our code and model checkpoints will be released upon acceptance.
arXiv:2610.10617v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In post-deployment time, inputs to deep learning models may or may not be adversarially patched. Patch robustness certification on such inputs within a patch bound can verify their label benignity and should retain high prediction accuracy. However, existing smoothing-based and masking-based recovery defenders cannot achieve both simultaneously: they degrade the prediction accuracy much and cannot verify the benignity of the returned label of an adversarially patched input, respectively. We propose MRCert, the first masking-based certified recovery defender that shows the feasibility of achieving both. Unlike all existing works to apply a common condition across both types of input (benign and adversarially patched samples) for certification, MRCert infers type-specific necessary properties of deep learning models for both types in post-deployment time and formally relates them to verify the label benignity through a novel type-oriented design of label recovery and certification function pair. Without incurring the degradation in clean accuracy caused by smoothing, experimental results confirm that MRCert achieves 35.1\% adversarial certified accuracy on ImageNet at patch size 16 pixels, whereas the SOTA PatchCURE fails completely.
arXiv:2610.10615v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Choosing which information to observe is central to prediction under limited observation budgets. We study JevForest, a feature acquisition policy that aggregates path-dependent proposals from bootstrapped trees, weights them by global training information gain, and predicts from the acquired values with a shared masked classifier. An online implementation queries Jev for semantic answers selected by this policy. On small balanced held-out samples, four-question forest acquisition achieves accuracy $0.729$ on AG News ($n=48$), compared with $0.667$ for a static gain ranking and $0.583$ for random ordering. On TREC ($n=24$), the ordering reverses: forest accuracy is $0.667$, compared with $0.750$ and $0.833$. Asking all eight questions in one batch yields higher accuracy at lower measured cost and latency than four sequential forest queries; direct Jev classification matches the batch accuracy while costing less. Offline MiniBooNE experiments yield accuracy $0.845\pm0.010$ at ten features and $0.885\pm0.008$ at forty features over three jointly varying data and forest seeds (mean $\pm$ sample standard deviation). A companion Newton boosting implementation provides preliminary full-feature synthetic results. These exploratory findings establish a working Jev acquisition workflow but do not support a general advantage for path voting: its value depends on the task, predictor, and the distinction between question budgets and actual query costs.
arXiv:2610.12444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantizing AdamW's optimizer states reduces persistent storage, but quantization errors propagate through the moment recurrences and perturb subsequent adaptive updates. We redesign 4-bit optimizer-state quantization for AdamW from the perspective of \emph{rounding space}: the coordinate in which a quantizer chooses between adjacent reconstruction levels. For the second moment, a local analysis of the quantization cell adjacent to zero shows that small mean state error need not imply small mean preconditioner error at the next step. A one-dimensional quadratic construction further shows qualitatively different optimization dynamics under state-space and preconditioner-space rounding. These results motivate Zero-Inclusive Preconditioner-space Stochastic Rounding (\textbf{ZIP-SR}), which retains zero in the second-moment codebook and computes stochastic-rounding probabilities in preconditioner space. As a complementary route, Zero-Excluding EDEN calibration (\textbf{ZE-EDEN}) uses a zero-excluding second-moment codebook and rescales the quantized second-moment block to mitigate the preconditioner distortion caused by the positive quantization floor. Both configurations use 4-bit NormalFloat (NF4) for the first moment, with targeted stochastic rounding of the LM-head first moment during the final 10\% of training. Across GPT- and Llama-style pretraining experiments ranging from \textbf{130M} to \textbf{2.7B} parameters, both methods reduce TorchAO 4-bit AdamW's mean validation-loss gap to 32-bit AdamW at every evaluated model size, with the largest reported gap reduction reaching \textbf{70\%}. In full-parameter supervised fine-tuning, both recipes achieve lower validation loss than TorchAO while remaining close to 32-bit AdamW on downstream tasks.
arXiv:2610.12397v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study whether persistent out-of-distribution (OOD) degradation can be predicted before it is directly observed using only source-side training dynamics. In a controlled shortcut-learning setting, a simple logistic regression predictor develops a clear prospective signal, while training time alone does not. Temporal summaries of the source-side quantities are substantially more informative than their current values. When transferred without additional training from a CNN to an MLP, confidence and entropy dynamics retain substantial predictive information. These results provide a proof of principle that source-side training dynamics can contain an early warning signal for future OOD failure.
arXiv:2610.12390v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Industrial risk-control systems typically rely on structured-data models for efficient prediction, yet substantial valuable information remains embedded in unstructured long text. Extracting this information through manual feature engineering is labor-intensive, while requiring a large language model (LLM) to process every real-time input may not meet practical deployment requirements. To address this challenge, we propose LLM-BlockFE, an LLM-guided offline feature construction framework that converts long text into executable feature programs, thereby avoiding LLM calls during online inference. LLM-BlockFE constructs feature programs by incrementally appending immutable code blocks and evaluates candidate features using a downstream model. To address the tendency of conventional greedy search to become trapped in suboptimal solutions, our method introduces a block-level rollback mechanism based on depth-calibrated credit allocation and advances multiple independent search trajectories in an interleaved manner, reducing redundant exploration by sharing fixed descriptions of each trajectory's exploration direction. After the search, the resulting programs are frozen and deployed to extract structured features for downstream prediction models. Across two public and two private datasets, LLM-BlockFE achieves absolute AUC improvements of 0.0069 to 0.0358 over the strongest baseline on each dataset in the full-dataset comparison. Post-launch monitoring across five deployed financial risk-control applications shows absolute KS improvements of 0.02 to 1.56 percentage points over the existing manually designed strategy.
arXiv:2610.12370v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Koopman operator theory provides a linear framework for analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems and has become a major tool for data-driven modeling. A central challenge, however, is that finite-dimensional approximations computed by methods such as extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) require the dictionary to be specified a priori. Recent machine-learning approaches address this limitation by learning the dictionary from data, predominantly using artificial neural network (ANN) autoencoder architectures. Although kernel methods offer an alternative with greater interpretability and tractability for theoretical analysis, they have received little attention in this setting. We introduce extended dynamic mode decomposition with kernel-based dictionary learning (EDMD-kDL), a kernel-based method for learning finite-dimensional Koopman embeddings directly from data. The method combines ideas from collocation methods and bilevel optimization to simultaneously learn a kernel dictionary and the corresponding Koopman approximation. We evaluate EDMD-kDL against state-of-the-art ANN-based approaches on a range of numerical experiments, including global sea-surface-temperature forecasting and learning directly from video data. Across all tested settings, EDMD-kDL achieves performance comparable to or better than the ANN-based methods. Moreover, in contrast to standard kernel methods, the proposed approach is scalable to large datasets by design since the size of the required kernel matrices depends on the number of collocation points rather than the size of the training dataset.
arXiv:2610.12362v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider policy optimization for online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with adversarial losses and bandit feedback. Policy optimization updates the policy locally at each state and avoids optimization over the occupancy-measure polytope, but its existing regret bounds are larger by a factor of the horizon $H$ than those of occupancy-measure-based algorithms. We close this gap by using regularized $Q$-functions, which allow us to control the stability of the local updates jointly over all state-action pairs rather than separately at each state. The resulting algorithm attains high-probability regret bounds of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{HS(H+A)T})$ for known transitions and $\widetilde O(HS\sqrt{AT})$ for unknown transitions, where $S$ is the number of states, $A$ the number of actions, and $T$ the number of episodes. Both bounds improve the horizon dependence of existing policy optimization bounds, and the latter matches the best-known bound. We further extend the algorithm to adversarial linear-mixture MDPs and obtain the same improvement in the horizon dependence.
arXiv:2610.12328v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider stochastic nonsmooth nonconvex composite optimization, which includes several important problems such as constrained optimization and the regularized training of neural networks. The objective is the sum of a possibly nonsmooth nonconvex Lipschitz function and a convex regularizer, and the function is accessed through stochastic gradients or function values. The goal is to find a point that satisfies a Goldstein-type stationarity condition designed for composite objectives. To our knowledge, no oracle complexity bound for this setting is known under first-order access, and existing complexities under zeroth-order access are suboptimal. To handle this issue, we employ the framework of online-to-nonconvex conversion, which chooses update directions by an online learner and is known to achieve optimal rates for noncomposite problems. We extend the framework to our composite scenario by introducing new losses for the learner, which contain the regularizer itself rather than its linearization and for which a variant of online mirror descent achieves low regret. We show that the resulting algorithm finds such a point with $O(\delta^{-1}\varepsilon^{-3})$ stochastic gradient queries or $O(d\delta^{-1}\varepsilon^{-3})$ function-value queries, where $\delta$ is the Goldstein radius, $\varepsilon$ is the stationarity tolerance, and $d$ is the dimension. These rates match the optimal ones for noncomposite nonsmooth nonconvex optimization, demonstrating that the additional convex regularizer does not worsen the oracle complexity. We also give rates for the smooth case and present numerical experiments.
arXiv:2610.12265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate workload forecasting is critical for elastic resource provisioning in web-scale cloud services, where distribution shifts driven by viral content, product launches, and user behavior degrade offline-trained models rapidly. Naive online learning recovers accuracy but incurs prohibitive per-step compute cost. We propose AdaptLSTM, an adaptive online framework that detects drift via validation-calibrated thresholds and applies selective, targeted updates. On the Alibaba Machine Trace, AdaptLSTM recovers 54\% of Naive Online's improvement at 20\% cost ($2.7\times$ efficiency, $p=0.002$ over 10 seeds). On the more volatile Container Trace, it achieves 96\% at 20\% cost ($4.8\times$ efficiency, $+75\%$ MAE reduction over Static). Unlike classical drift detectors (ADWIN, DDM, Page-Hinkley) which fail to trigger on regression-scale error streams, AdaptLSTM fires 42 times over 301 steps and outperforms matched-budget baselines. Wall-clock profiling shows $1.33\times$ throughput gain and 45\% update-time reduction. The framework is model-agnostic: identical Pareto patterns hold for LSTM, GRU, and Transformer backbones.
arXiv:2610.12244v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Isolation Forest (IF) is a widely used baseline for unsupervised anomaly detection. Recent studies provide a closed-form expression for the infinite-forest limit for one-dimensional data. Inspired by the geometric interpretation of this formula, we introduce RIFT (Relative Isolation From Trees), a deterministic anomaly detection method that generates the minimum spanning tree and scores each point by the sum of the apparent sizes of tree edges as viewed from that point. For one-dimensional data, the RIFT score recovers the closed-form IF limit exactly. In higher dimensions, it provides a parameter-free generalization that is deterministic, robust to varying density and clustered anomalies and avoids the axis-parallel artifacts of IF. We further propose an ensemble variant for large datasets. Experiments on synthetic data and the ADBench benchmark demonstrate that the accuracy is comparable to IF, while the ensemble variant exhibits significantly lower variance across random seeds.
arXiv:2610.12240v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have achieved strong forecasting performance across domains. However, most adaptation methods remain static. Existing all-in-one methods learn a single set of dataset-level parameter updates and apply the same adapted model to every input. As a result, they cannot adapt the model parameters to the temporal patterns, seasonality and dynamics of each input time series. This limits their ability to produce forecasts that are tailored to heterogeneous inputs. To address this limitation, we propose AdaCast, a conditional parameter generation framework for time-series forecasting. AdaCast uses a generator to produce input-specific low-rank parameter updates for a frozen pretrained TSFM. These updates adapt the model to each input during both training and inference. Across six public benchmarks, AdaCast consistently outperforms static adaptation baseline in in-domain forecasting and improves zero-shot generalization to held-out datasets across domains. These results demonstrate that conditional parameter generation provides an effective approach for adaptive forecasting.
arXiv:2610.12211v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A verifier that accepts or rejects whole answers reveals little: under a flat prior over $k$-bit answers, zero error needs $2^k-1$ verifications. The usual remedy is to solve related source tasks, either all first, as a curriculum does, or interleaved with verification. We price this remedy in information and in calls. With an exact verifier, the least causal information that any interleaving of source calls and $n$ verifications needs to succeed with probability $s$ is a list rate-distortion function, attained by one observation before any verification. It lower-bounds the expected number of binary source calls, which designed sources meet within $1+\log_25$ calls for unique answers and within a logarithmic term in general, where no additive constant suffices. With an exact verifier and fixed sources, moving every call before the first verification preserves all hard caps on calls, although interleaving can save unboundedly many expected calls; under a noisy verifier, source-first protocols can lose unbounded factors in information and in error. For linear banks over $\mathbb{F}_2$, optimal accuracy has a closed form, and after a polynomial-time reduction the budget profile is computable in time $2^{O(h^2)}\operatorname{poly}(J,k+h)$ for $J$ sources and nuisance dimension $h$. In these banks, for zero error under a hard cap, the calls beyond the rounded-up information price are exactly those spent on nuisance. Every numbered result apart from two clauses about the planner is machine-checked in Lean 4, assuming two published results. Used as a ruler, the frontier shows a small transformer using all delivered bits at latent dimension $5$ and none at $11$ within fixed training budgets; in a test with predictions recorded before training, low XOR degree of the target bits did not suffice for their use.
arXiv:2610.12190v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As claims about recursive self-improvement (RSI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI) proliferate, we ask a simple question: do frontier AI models have a sense of data, i.e., can they reliably select the right data for training? We introduce DataSense-Bench to study this capability through the fundamental problem of data selection and performance forecasting in machine learning. We ask AI agents to select and rank candidate training subsets that can be used to fine-tune a small LLM model. Agents are allowed to inspect the data, write and execute analysis code, and run model forward passes, but can not train the model or access the actual evaluation tasks. We then fine-tune the base model on each selected subset and evaluate its post-training performance under a standardized protocol. We instantiate the benchmark in terminal problem solving and tool use, selecting trajectories from OpenThoughts-Agent and EnvScaler and evaluating on TBLite and BFCL, respectively. We then evaluate the agents along two complementary dimensions: the post-training performance of the top-ranked subset, reflecting the ability to identify high-value training data, and ranking accuracy, reflecting the ability to predict the relative performance of the selected subsets. In our experiments, selection gains over random selection are limited; agents do not reliably rank their selected groups, and ranking ability does not hold consistently across tasks: Astra identifies the best group in all three tool-use runs but in only one of three terminal runs. Analysis of execution traces on both tasks shows that agents often use similar data signals while interpreting their training value differently.
arXiv:2610.12189v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generative diffusion models are well-suited for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting, but existing approaches often rely on separately trained compression or deterministic forecasting components and remain costly at inference due to iterative denoising. We introduce Just Weather Scoring (JWS), a single-stage, end-to-end diffusion model which addresses both issues by forecasting directly in radar space and enabling few-step generation. Radar-space modeling greatly simplifies training and inference and eliminates uncertainty arising from lossy compression. JWS combines Masked Asynchronous Diffusion, a timestep-sampling scheme that preserves clean context while adapting diffusion training to high-dimensional spatio-temporal data, with a simple scoring-rule objective that aligns training with probabilistic forecasting and unlocks few-step generation. On the SEVIR and MeteoNet benchmarks, JWS achieves state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting performance at reduced training and inference cost. Even our smallest model remains competitive using substantially fewer parameters and more than 17x faster inference.
arXiv:2610.12183v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Black-box optimization (BBO) arises in many scientific and engineering problems where objective evaluations are expensive and limited. Recent large language model (LLM) agents offer a new way to approach BBO by combining task semantics, computation, optimization tools, and feedback-driven decision making, showing great potential due to the integration with mathematically rigorous tools. However, existing agentic BBO studies use different task domains and system configurations, making their results difficult to compare and the effects of individual design choices hard to isolate. We therefore introduce AgenticBBO-Bench, a cross-domain benchmark for agentic BBO spanning synthetic functions, hyperparameter optimization, database tuning, chip design, and molecular design under a unified finite-budget evaluation protocol. In our experiments, agentic BBO achieves higher family-averaged scores than direct LLM-based methods in all five domains and outperforms the best numerical optimizers in four. We further study three factors shaping agent performance: optimization tools, task information and prior knowledge, and the role of the LLM during search. Our results show that additional numerical tools do not consistently improve performance, task semantics are broadly useful while more specific priors are less reliable, and numerical optimizers can effectively absorb gains from search trajectories established by the agent. Finally, we introduce a five-task frontier challenge within AgenticBBO-Bench and evaluate seven LLMs under the Codex agent harness, where GPT-6 Astra and DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash lie on the Pareto frontier of performance and cost among the evaluated models. Our code is available at https://github.com/lamda-bbo/agentic-bbo.
arXiv:2610.12163v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generating large attributed graphs requires reproducing the topology, generating attributes jointly with the structure, and remaining scalable. Many real-world graphs exist as a single large graph, so a generative model has to generalize from the one graph it is fit on, without independent samples. We present Schema, which recursively decomposes a reference graph into a hierarchy of soft communities, assigning each node a membership distribution. Generation is then split into three stages, each trained independently: (1) synthesizing node attributes conditioned on soft memberships, (2) generating intra-community edges from local structural context, and (3) modeling inter-community connections over bridge nodes whose membership mass is distributed across several communities. No stage forms the full adjacency matrix, and each stage operates on a subgraph bounded by the community size. We also introduce an evaluation protocol that covers structural fidelity, memorization, downstream utility, and scalability. On four real-world attributed graphs, Schema recovers the balance between local and long-range structure more closely than any other model that generates attributes, while reproducing only a small fraction of the reference edges. It retains the downstream accuracy of the reference graph without raising it artificially above that level. Baselines that match its structural fidelity memorize the reference, while those with higher downstream accuracy either exceed the reference accuracy or fail to complete on the larger graphs. We measure scalability on six additional graphs with up to 10 million nodes.