Q-Learning under Finite Model Uncertainty

arXiv:2407.04259v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose a robust Q-learning algorithm for Markov decision processes under model uncertainty when each state--action pair is associated with a finite ambiguity set of candidate transition kernels. This finite-measure framework enables user-designed uncertainty models, including competing fitted models and stress scenarios. {The learner observes successor states and their deterministic rewards from every candidate simulator, without requiring explicit knowledge of the transition probabilities or the reward function.} We establish almost sure convergence of the learned Q-function to the robust optimum, and derive a time-uniform high-probability error certificate that separates an observable empirical Bellman residual from transition-kernel estimation error. We also give quantitative finite-ambiguity approximation results for Wasserstein and parametric uncertainty models on finite state spaces. Numerical examples illustrate the effect of scenario selection and compare the tabular algorithm with robust value iteration.