Convergence Rates of Gaussian Process Thompson Sampling for Efficient Global Optimization

arXiv:2610.19925v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Efficient global optimization aims to identify a global optimum of an expensive black-box function within a limited evaluation budget $N$. We investigate the convergence rates of Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS) under noiseless observations, assuming a fixed objective function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). For Mat\'ern kernels with smoothness parameter $\nu$ in dimension $d$, we establish a worst-case expected simple-regret upper bound of $O(N^{-\nu/d}\sqrt{\log N})$ for both discrete GP-TS on sufficiently fine grids and its continuous counterpart. For the continuous implementation, we develop a nested-grid argument to control posterior sample paths over the entire domain. We further establish matching lower bounds of $\Omega(N^{-5/2}\sqrt{\log N})$ for both implementations under a fixed one-dimensional Mat\'ern-$5/2$ kernel, demonstrating that the logarithmic penalty is intrinsic to standard GP-TS in this setting. Motivated by this limitation, we propose Gaussian Process Capped Thompson Sampling (GP-CTS), which caps posterior sample paths using a valid RKHS norm upper bound while preserving optimism. This modification successfully eliminates the logarithmic penalty and achieves the minimax-optimal rate $\Theta(N^{-\nu/d})$ for both discrete and continuous implementations.