Flow Matching with Missing Data

arXiv:2607.28698v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Flow matching assumes fully observed training data, which many real-world applications rarely provide. We study Missing-Data Flow Matching, which treats the missing coordinates of training samples as latent variables and averages the flow matching loss over the values they could take. We first prove that the oracle correction is exact: completing from the true pattern-conditioned posterior recovers the complete-data flow-matching objective under any missingness mechanism. Under missing completely at random (MCAR) and missing at random (MAR), this posterior equals the ordinary complete-data conditional, while under missing not at random (MNAR) it generally depends on the missingness mechanism and may require additional structure to identify. Our finite-sample analysis then answers design questions that the algorithm leaves open. Missingness transfers estimator variance rather than adding it, and for the fixed-parameter loss estimator one completion per example matches complete-data variance and is optimal under a fixed evaluation budget. A learned completion model contributes population completion bias, which we bound by its expected conditional Wasserstein distance to the true completion law. Experiments numerically validate the theoretical predictions, show that deterministic rather than frozen imputation reduces generated conditional variability, and place our method alongside strong classical and deep imputation baselines on real tabular data.