Measuring Variable Importance Using Proportional Inclusive Marginal Effects

arXiv:2610.17053v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Shapley-based measures are widely used for measuring variable importance in statistics and machine learning. However, these measures have a serious issue--a nonactive variable can get a positive importance measure when it is correlated with an active variable. Herin et al. recently proposed a measure called proportional marginal effects (PME) that mitigates this spurious effect. However, PME is developed for deterministic models and has high computational cost. In this article, we propose a new measure called proportional inclusive marginal effects (PRIME) that overcomes these two limitations of PME. The key idea in PRIME is to use a novel model-free variable selection technique to identify the active variables and include only them in the computation of the importance measure. Analysis of test functions and real datasets show that PRIME can accurately and reliably quantify variable importance from noisy input-output data.