Physics-Guided Multi-Fidelity Surrogate Modeling for Natural Supercavity Geometry of an Axisymmetric Conical Cavitator

arXiv:2610.18886v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Natural supercavitation behind conical cavitators generates a vapor-filled envelope that, when sustained over the full body of a high-speed underwater vehicles, reduces hydrodynamic skin-friction drag and enables performance levels unattainable in fully wetted flow. Accurate prediction of maximum cavity length and maximum cavity radius and local cavity profile as functions of cavitation number and cone half-angle is essential for both the static design and the real-time shape management of super-cavitating torpedo cavitators. Classical analytical models provide computationally inexpensive predictions but exhibit systematic disagreements in the practically important regime of moderate cavitation number and large angle, where slender-body assumptions begin to break down. Existing data-driven machine learning approaches offer higher accuracy but are constrained by the prohibitive cost of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) sweeps over the full design space. This study proposes a physics-guided multi-fidelity surrogate framework based on Extended Hierarchical Kriging (PG-EHK) that addresses this challenge by fusing the multiple competing analytical cavity formulas as non-level low-fidelity (LF) trend functions corrected by a sparse set of high-fidelity (HF) CFD data. It simultaneously incorporates the analytical models regardless of their local fidelity ordering, using Bayesian-estimated scaling factors to construct the trend function as physical baseline. The resulting surrogate maps operational condition inputs to cavity geometry responses using fewer than 20 high-fidelity CFD evaluations. Cross-validation on five independent hold-out CFD cases demonstrates that the proposed PG-EHK surrogate achieves 61% reduction in prediction error compared to the best-performing individual analytical approach.