Who Sets the Pace of Judge Hacking? Judge Capability versus the Policy-Judge Gap

arXiv:2610.15778v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Under GRPO against a frozen, reference-free LLM judge, RL exploits the judge's false positives. Does the policy-judge capability gap or the judge itself set how fast and how far? We train 0.5B and 1.5B Qwen2.5 policies on GSM8K against four judges at least as large, and the 1.5B policy also against one smaller judge. In a post-hoc analysis, judge acceptance rose, but no cell of 12 gained more than 0.04 in seed-mean held-out greedy accuracy. A gold-reward control with the same recipe raised the 1.5B policy's accuracy by +0.054 (for the 0.5B policy, gold reward gave no detectable gain either). The depth of judge hacking tracks the judge: the plateau correlates with judge AUC (Spearman -0.69 over 12 cells), and within a family the larger judge is fooled less deeply. For the pace, two pre-specified pairs contradict the gap account: the cell with the larger gap was fooled 3.5x sooner at the pre-specified threshold. With 12 cells, however, we cannot formally separate judge AUC from the gap for either endpoint. A blind test of step-0 predictors on three held-out judges was inconclusive. At 7-8B, judges from three families plateaued between 0.37 and 0.85.